Democratic
Jordan Herrera
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Missouri District 4 election, 2026
Jordan Herrera vs. Mark Alford on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Mark Alford favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+12.3
96%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Mark Alford
Incumbent representative for MO-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Thomas Holbrook · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Gina Loudon's Delusion: Medicaid And SNAP Fraudsters Drive Ferraris
Real America's Voice Gina Loudon lied during today's broadcast after a GAO report came out highlighting "improper payments" for 2025, and claimed people are abusing and committing fraud to our social safety net programs so they could buy Ferraris and Range Ro…
Crooksandliars.com · June 9, 2026
These red state Republicans just stabbed their voters in the back
On Wednesday night, the U.S. House delivered a stinging, bipartisan rebuke to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, voting 219-211 to rescind the “fentanyl emergency” tariffs on Canadian imports.Six Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Don Bacon (R-NE),…
Raw Story · February 15, 2026
On Fascists, Mean Girls and Screechy Pedophile Allies
In what one sage deemed "amateur-hour, clown-fucker, reality-show dictatorship shit," this week's House hearings on ICE abuses, Epstein cover-ups and other GOP atrocities showcased a parade of rancid, lying, stonewalling MAGA lickspittles and deplorables - lo…
Common Dreams · February 13, 2026
MAGA 'exploding with rage' over Super Bowl as Jimmy Kimmel highlights flaw in their fury
Jimmy Kimmel has pointed out a problem in the MAGA fury kindled by Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show.The Grammy winner infuriated the MAGA faithful and Donald Trump, though talk show host Kimmel believes it is ridiculous to see so much outrage over the hal…
Raw Story · February 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗