Democratic
Emanuel Cleaver
Incumbent representative for MO-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Missouri District 5 election, 2026
Emanuel Cleaver vs. Rick Brattin on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Rick Brattin favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+9.8
59%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+18.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Rick Brattin
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Randy Langkraehr · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Emanuel CleaverDEM · incumbent$1.8M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $883k13% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$155k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$78k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$36k
- Legal & Professional Services$12k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$12k
States
- MO$270k
- DC$27k
- KS$21k
- FL$19k
- CA$18k
Rick BrattinREP$457k raised
Spent $457kCash on hand $359Debts $51k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$76k
- Retired$65k
- Legal & Professional Services$37k
- Homemaker$24k
- Defense & Aerospace$7k
States
- MO$289k
- FL$26k
- KS$16k
- TX$7k
- PA$7k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Missouri's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Missouri Voters Reject Trump-Backed Effort to Steal House Seats
Missourians blocked a new congressional map pushed by the state’s Republicans and President Donald Trump Tuesday by nearly 62 percent of the vote. Proposition A would have redrawn the state’s map to favor Republicans and push Democratic Representative Emanuel…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed Missouri congressional map for 3rd time
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — The Supreme Court on Friday turned away an attempt to use a new Missouri congressional map backed by President Donald Trump, putting an end to a long-running legal dispute as absentee voting is underway in the midterm elections. Th…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 25, 2026
Missouri congressional map returns to Supreme Court for a 3rd time
WASHINGTON (AP) — The fight over Missouri's congressional map returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time late Tuesday, after an appeals court ordered the revival of new districts backed by President Donald Trump. The new map was drawn to help Republ…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 23, 2026
How Do You Stop Election Tampering Before It Happens?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonHow do you stop election tampering before it happens?A potential crisis was averte…
The New Republic · September 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗