Democratic
Emanuel Cleaver
Incumbent representative for MO-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Missouri District 5 election, 2026
Emanuel Cleaver vs. Rick Brattin on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Rick Brattin favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+2.0
62%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+18.62026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Rick Brattin
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Randy Langkraehr · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-5. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Missouri's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Appeals court orders Missouri to use GOP-friendly map as Supreme Court fight looms
Protesters against Missouri's congressional redistricting plan gather outside the Missouri Capitol in Jefferson City on May 12. - David A. Lieb/AP/File A federal appeals court ruled Monday that Missouri must use a GOP-friendly congressional redistricting pl…
CNN · Today
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Missouri GOP caves on its gerrymandered map crusade — for now
Missouri Republicans are pressing on with a federal appeals court fight over the state's gerrymandered congressional map, even though the battle over this year's election is effectively over — a tacit admission that this round of litigation is really about se…
Raw Story · September 15, 2026
Republicans cave on GOP-drawn map scheme just before court holds official in contempt
Missouri's secretary of state and attorney general abandoned their defiance of a state Supreme Court order blocking a Republican-drawn congressional map, less than an hour before a contempt hearing.Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins told local electi…
Raw Story · September 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗