Democratic
Michael Chiaradio
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Mississippi District 3 election, 2026
Michael Chiaradio vs. Michael Guest. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Michael Guest favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+29.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Michael Guest
Incumbent representative for MS-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Erik Kiehle · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MS-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Michael GuestREP · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $821kCash on hand $780k19% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$36k
- Retired$32k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$30k
- Legal & Professional Services$25k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$23k
States
- MS$344k
- VA$53k
- DC$34k
- CA$21k
- IL$15k
Michael ChiaradioDEM$224k raised
Spent $185kCash on hand $39kDebts $14k44% from donors under $200Self-funded $18k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$38k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$10k
- Legal & Professional Services$8k
- Retired$6k
- Education & Academia$2k
States
- MS$20k
- CA$13k
- WA$11k
- NY$7k
- VA$6k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MS-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
House ethics committee to probe major sex scandal involving GOP congressman
The House Committee on Ethics announced that it had opened an investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX).In a statement on Wednesday, Committee chair Michael Guest (R-MS) said that "the Investigative Subcommittee shall …
Raw Story · March 4, 2026
GOP-Led House Ethics Committee Announces Investigation Into Republican Member
The GOP-led House of Representatives’ Committee on Ethics announced an investigation into Representative Mike Collins (R-GA) and his chief of staff, Brandon Phillips, per a Friday statement. The statement, from Chairman Michael Guest (R-MS) and Ranking Member…
Mediaite · November 21, 2025
Members appointed to the House Ethics Committee
The House officially appointed members to the House Ethics Committee on Tuesday — months into the new Congress. The committee will once again be chaired by Rep. Michael Guest, the Mississippi Republican who oversaw the fraught release of the committee’s repo…
Biztoc.com · March 11, 2025
monday.com (NASDAQ:MNDY) Stock Acquired Rep. Michael Guest
Representative Michael Guest (R-Mississippi) recently bought shares of monday.com Ltd. (NASDAQ:MNDY). In a filing disclosed on December 20th, the Representative disclosed that they had bought between $1,001 and $15,000 in monday.com stock on November 8th. The…
ETF Daily News · December 24, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗