Democratic
Jeffrey Hulum III
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Mississippi District 4 election, 2026
Jeffrey Hulum III vs. Mike Ezell. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Ezell favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+37.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+43.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mike Ezell
Incumbent representative for MS-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Carl Boyanton · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MS-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike EzellREP · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $89k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$35k
- Homemaker$26k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$24k
- Transportation & Logistics$15k
- Legal & Professional Services$13k
States
- MS$331k
- VA$26k
- LA$21k
- DC$21k
- FL$20k
Jeffrey Hulum IIIDEM$60k raised
Spent $50kCash on hand $11kDebts $4k58% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$15k
- Unemployed$6k
- Retired$5k
- Legal & Professional Services$600
- Government$450
States
- MS$31k
- TX$5k
- NC$3k
- HI$2k
- FL$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MS-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Mississippi's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Legislation Introduced to Retroactively Restore NFIP Amid Government Shutdown
Two U.S. Congressmen, one a Democrat from Louisiana and the other a Republican from Mississippi, have introduced legislation to retroactively restore the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Congressmen Troy A. Carter, Sr., D-La., and Mike Ezell, R-Miss. …
Insurance Journal · November 10, 2025
Trump's shutdown fight over 'immigrant health care' could push hospitals to the brink
Based on the ongoing rhetoric surrounding the federal government shutdown, perhaps it is time to ask the question.The question is, do we – the United States of America – really want undocumented immigrants receiving medical treatment in our hospital emergency…
Raw Story · October 12, 2025
White House admits Biden accidentally doxxed US special forces members for Instagram post: 'We regret the error'
The White House confirmed that it had accidentally revealed the identities of several U.S. special forces members for the sake of posting a photograph on Instagram with President Joe Biden. “As soon as this was brought to our attention, we immediately deleted…
TheBlaze · October 19, 2023
NSSF Recognizes Former Sheriff U.S. Representative Mike Ezell in Congress During National Police Week 2023
WASHINGTON, May 18, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- NSSF®, The Firearm Industry Trade Association, recognized former sheriff and U.S. Congressman Mike Ezell (R-Miss.) as a Real Solutions.® Champion during National Police Week 2023. U.S. Rep. Ezell was presented the awar…
PRNewswire · May 18, 2023
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗