Democratic
Bennie Thompson
Incumbent representative for MS-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Mississippi District 2 election, 2026
Bennie Thompson vs. Ron Eller. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bennie Thompson favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+28.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+20.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ron Eller
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Bennie Foster · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MS-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bennie ThompsonDEM · incumbent$928k raised
Spent $1.3MCash on hand $1.3M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$35k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$35k
- Retired$25k
- Transportation & Logistics$23k
- Legal & Professional Services$16k
States
- FL$36k
- MS$32k
- MD$28k
- TX$23k
- DC$17k
Ron EllerREP$71k raised
Spent $65kCash on hand $42kDebts $3k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $3k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$27k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$13k
- Homemaker$750
- Manufacturing & Industrial$100
States
- TX$22k
- MS$19k
- WA$5k
- ND$2k
- AL$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MS-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Mississippi's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Mississippi votes Democrat Bennie Thompson as 2nd District U.S. Representative
JACKSON, Miss. — Democrat Bennie G. Thompson won the 2nd District U.S. House seat in Mississippi.
WBRZ · November 4, 2026
Trump’s Vile Persecution of Ilhan Omar Is About to Run Into a Wall
Donald Trump’s criminal investigation into Representative Ilhan Omar—which is aimed at stripping her citizenship—is far more than just another attack on a vocal critic. As many have noted, this denaturalization push is an assault on the constitutional order i…
The New Republic · October 26, 2026
Democrats' midterm money fight exposes divisions over race, ideology and strategy
Democrats have more midterm targets than they can afford to tackle — and they are sparring over where to spend the limited cash they have.The party's progressive and establishment wings are squabbling over where to prioritize finite funds on an improbably exp…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 24, 2026
Capitol agenda: Bennie Thompson warns about Dems’ late bet
National Democrats finally went into Mississippi this week, putting over $1 million behind Scott Colom‘s campaign to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. To the state’s most prominent Democrat, it was welcome — but too late. “Anything is appreciated, and I don’t wan…
Biztoc.com · October 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗