Montana District 1 election, 2026

Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint.

VotePredictor forecast

Aaron Flint favored

Lean R · predicted margin R+4.3

79%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+12.0

2026 national environment

D+6.6

District polls

2, averaging R+2.8

Forecast spread

±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.0.

Democratic

Sam Forstag

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Aaron Flint

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Nick Sheedy · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

2 polls · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

American Pulse Research & Polling2026-09-24R+0.5

Upswing Research2026-05-05R+5.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Montana's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+7.7

2022Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+3.2

2020Matt Rosendale(R)R+12.8

2018Greg Gianforte(R)R+4.6

2017Greg Gianforte(R)R+5.6

2016Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+15.6

2014Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+15.0

2012Steve Daines(R)R+10.5

2008Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.7

2006Denny Rehberg(R)R+19.8

2004Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.6