VotePredictor
← all House races

Montana District 1 election, 2026

Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Aaron Flint favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+0.4
53%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+12.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
9, averaging D+2.5
Forecast spread
±5.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 9 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said R+4.4.

Democratic

Sam Forstag

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Aaron Flint

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Nick Sheedy · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

11 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Emerson College (via Wikipedia)Grade A-11-01EVEN
RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23R+2.0
Montana State University Billings10-21D+17.0
Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-14D+4.0
Public Policy PollingGrade A-10-14D+3.0
American Pulse Research & Polling09-24R+0.5
Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-09-23D+3.0
Public Policy Polling (via Wikipedia)Grade A-09-10D+2.0
Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics (via Wikipedia)09-07R+1.0
Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-06-25EVEN
Upswing Research05-05R+5.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Sam ForstagDEM$4.3M raised
Spent $3.6MCash on hand $726k64% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 2026$331k
  2. FORSTAG VICTORY FUND$30k
  3. IMPOSSIBLE TO INEVITABLE$26k
  4. SHENKER, SCOTT$11k
  5. AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION$10k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$980k
  2. Retired$272k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$229k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$131k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$95k

States

  1. MT$748k
  2. CA$455k
  3. NY$210k
  4. MA$119k
  5. WA$99k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Aaron FlintREP$2.9M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $408k16% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$147k
  2. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$108k
  3. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$48k
  4. FLINT LEADERSHIP PAC$26k
  5. HEAD, ANDY$16k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$687k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$99k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$51k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$44k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$18k

States

  1. MT$731k
  2. NY$83k
  3. CA$82k
  4. FL$78k
  5. VA$73k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Montana's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+7.7
2022Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+3.2
2020Matt Rosendale(R)R+12.8
2018Greg Gianforte(R)R+4.6
2017Greg Gianforte(R)R+5.6
2016Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+15.6
2014Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+15.0
2012Steve Daines(R)R+10.5
2008Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.7
2006Denny Rehberg(R)R+19.8
2004Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.6
2002Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.9
2000Denny Rehberg(R)R+5.2
1998Richard A. Hill(R)R+8.7

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MS-4 · MT-2