Montana District 1 election, 2026

Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint.

VotePredictor forecast

Aaron Flint favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+15.2

99%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+10.8

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Sam Forstag

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Aaron Flint

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Nick Sheehy · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Upswing Research2026-05-05R+5.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Montana's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+7.7

2022Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+3.2

2020Matt Rosendale(R)R+12.8

2018Greg Gianforte(R)R+4.6

2017Greg Gianforte(R)R+5.6

2016Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+15.6

2014Ryan K. Zinke(R)R+15.0

2012Steve Daines(R)R+10.5

2008Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.7

2006Denny Rehberg(R)R+19.8

2004Denny Rehberg(R)R+31.6