Democratic
Brian Miller
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Montana District 2 election, 2026
Brian Miller vs. Troy Downing. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Troy Downing favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+30.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging R+17.6Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+25.7.
Republican
Troy Downing
Incumbent representative for MT-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Michael Eisenhauer · Independent
- Patrick McCracken · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Troy DowningREP · incumbent$2.7M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $747kDebts $2.0M21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$326k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$70k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$61k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$20k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$15k
States
- MT$290k
- FL$136k
- TX$95k
- CA$73k
- NY$43k
Michael EisenhauerIND$354k raised
Spent $331kCash on hand $23kDebts $266k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $250k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$46k
- Not Reported$7k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$821
- Education & Academia$771
States
- MT$31k
- WA$16k
- AZ$14k
- FL$12k
- CA$7k
Brian MillerDEM$31k raised
Spent $29kCash on hand $66933% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$3k
- Not Reported$2k
States
- MT$6k
- GA$282
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MT-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Montana's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican Downing projected to win re-election in eastern Montana House race
U.S. Rep. Troy Downing is projected to win re-election to his eastern Montana congressional seat, according to The Associated Press.
KTVQ Billings News · November 4, 2026
Live Action urges HHS to take abortion pill off market after undercover investigation
Live Action President Lila Rose and Ethics and Public Policy Center President Ryan Anderson speak at a press conference on Capitol Hill on Jan. 22, 2026. | Credit: Photo courtesy of Live Action Jan 22, 2026 / 15:59 pm (CNA). Live Action has sent an urgent me…
Catholicnewsagency.com · January 22, 2026
Photos: Ben Carson attends Liberty Dinner in Billings
Ben and Candy Carson are photographed with United States Representative Troy Downing during the Mountain States Policy Center 2025 Montana Liberty Dinner at the Double Tree by Hilton Hotel.
Billings Gazette · November 7, 2025
Crypto in 401(k)s: Trump’s New Frontier for Altcoins Boosts Bitcoin Hyper’s Prospects
Quick Facts: 1️⃣ Representative Troy Downing (R-Mont.) introduced a bill codifying Trump’s Executive Order 14330. 2️⃣ The executive order opens the $12T 401(k) market to crypto investors. 3️⃣ Both the executive order and the bill are infrastructure plays, set…
Bitcoinist · October 15, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗