Democratic
Chuck Hubbard
Major-party general-election nominee.
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North Carolina District 5 election, 2026
Chuck Hubbard vs. Virginia Foxx on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Virginia Foxx favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+9.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+17.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Virginia Foxx
Incumbent representative for NC-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Robert Luffman · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NC-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Virginia FoxxREP · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $3.5M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$254k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$122k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$52k
- Homemaker$40k
- Legal & Professional Services$31k
States
- NC$687k
- FL$309k
- NY$113k
- VA$46k
- CT$46k
Chuck HubbardDEM$863k raised
Spent $719kCash on hand $152kDebts $20k57% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$248k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$30k
- Education & Academia$11k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$8k
- Legal & Professional Services$3k
States
- NC$259k
- CA$16k
- DC$11k
- SC$11k
- VA$9k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Have You Seen This Guy'Dummymander For The Ages'ave You Seen This GuyDummymander For The Ages's Ass?
Last year, North Carolina Republicans got the bright idea to try and draw Democrat Don Davis out of existence, giving them an 11-3 instead of a 10-4 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. State Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, led the effort. via Carolina…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
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GOP Rep Virginia Foxx Holds Opioid And Coal Stocks Amid NC Overdose Crisis And Hundreds Of Mine Safety Penalties
North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx has held opioid and coal company stocks amid the state’s overdose crisis and hundreds of mine safety penalties.
The Daily Caller · October 7, 2026
Trump's arch placed on notice by senior Republican who'd have to pay for it
A senior Republican on the House Appropriations Committee is pushing back on the idea that federal money, particularly Pentagon funding, should go toward building President Donald Trump's planned triumphal arch near the Lincoln Memorial.Rep. Mike Simpson (R-I…
Raw Story · September 21, 2026
Embattled Republican threatens longstanding House tradition to avoid feeling 'irritated'
A House Republican, whose caucus is being besieged with questions about President Donald Trump, is leading the charge to spare lawmakers the irritation of reporters camped off the House floor, according to a new report.Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC), who chairs th…
Raw Story · September 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗