Democratic
Rachel Peace
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New Jersey District 4 election, 2026
Rachel Peace vs. Chris Smith. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Chris Smith favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+26.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+30.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Chris Smith
Incumbent representative for NJ-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Chris SmithREP · incumbent$797k raised
Spent $608kCash on hand $553k14% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$76k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$59k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$16k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$9k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$7k
States
- NJ$225k
- VA$23k
- NY$22k
- PA$16k
- MD$14k
Rachel PeaceDEM$101k raised
Spent $87kCash on hand $14kDebts $19k48% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$26k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$484
- Not Reported$350
- Retired$100
States
- NJ$35k
- ZZ$3k
- CA$250
- CT$100
- NY$100
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Republican Rep. Chris Smith urges Trump to confront Xi about Americans jailed in China
With as many as 300 Americans detained in China, where some are subjected to sexual abuse and torture, Rep. Chris Smith is demanding that President Trump make their release a centerpiece of his upcoming summit with China’s President Xi Jinping. The New Jersey…
Freerepublic.com · September 22, 2026
Trump Twisted a Climate Debate Beyond Recognition
Over the last few weeks, the United States right loudly claimed victory in a battle that few people on earth knew was happening. The National Review’s Editorial Board gloated, “Science Has Spoken Against Climate Alarmism.” Several papers owned by Rupert Murdo…
The New Republic · May 26, 2026
Johnson Doing ‘Everything He Can’ to Extend Planned Parenthood Defund: Pro-Life Rep
Speaker Mike Johnson has assured some members of Congress and pro-life leaders that he will try to stop the resumption of Planned Parenthood funding, but he faces opposition from Democrats and even members of his own party. Johnson told Pro-Life Caucus Co-Ch…
Daily Signal · May 6, 2026
Missing GOP Rep. Breaks His Silence After Being MIA for Over a Month
New Jersey Representative Tom Kean Jr. has finally addressed the public regarding his multiweek absence from Congress.“I want to thank my constituents and colleagues for their patience as I address a personal medical issue,” Kean said in a statement posted on…
The New Republic · April 28, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗