Democratic
Rachel Peace
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Chris Smith favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+32.0
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+28.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Chris Smith
Incumbent representative for NJ-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Trump Twisted a Climate Debate Beyond Recognition
Over the last few weeks, the United States right loudly claimed victory in a battle that few people on earth knew was happening. The National Review’s Editorial Board gloated, “Science Has Spoken Against Climate Alarmism.” Several papers owned by Rupert Murdo…
The New Republic · May 26, 2026
Johnson Doing ‘Everything He Can’ to Extend Planned Parenthood Defund: Pro-Life Rep
Speaker Mike Johnson has assured some members of Congress and pro-life leaders that he will try to stop the resumption of Planned Parenthood funding, but he faces opposition from Democrats and even members of his own party. Johnson told Pro-Life Caucus Co-Ch…
Daily Signal · May 6, 2026
Missing GOP Rep. Breaks His Silence After Being MIA for Over a Month
New Jersey Representative Tom Kean Jr. has finally addressed the public regarding his multiweek absence from Congress.“I want to thank my constituents and colleagues for their patience as I address a personal medical issue,” Kean said in a statement posted on…
The New Republic · April 28, 2026
It Sure Doesn’t Sound Like Missing GOP Rep. Will Be Back Anytime Soon
Republican Representative Thomas Kean Jr. of western New Jersey hasn’t voted on a single bill since March 5. Apparently, he’s been ill.Kean Jr. and his staff never explained to his constituents why the lawmaker was suddenly missing in action, but the 57-year-…
The New Republic · April 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗