Democratic
Josh Gottheimer
Incumbent representative for NJ-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New Jersey District 5 election, 2026
Josh Gottheimer vs. Sean Kirrane. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Josh Gottheimer favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+11.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+2.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Sean Kirrane
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Adam Rueda · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Josh GottheimerDEM · incumbent$5.8M raised
Spent $13.0MCash on hand $13.5M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$739k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$671k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$265k
- Legal & Professional Services$176k
- Technology & Communications$77k
States
- NY$919k
- NJ$658k
- CA$517k
- FL$272k
- IL$135k
Sean KirraneREP$104k raised
Spent $104kCash on hand $196Debts $81k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $56k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$18k
- Homemaker$4k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$4k
- Education & Academia$750
- Self-Employed & Freelance$250
States
- NJ$28k
- NY$4k
- KS$4k
- FL$2k
- OK$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Jersey's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
A Party With A Racism Problem
Not just the Republicans.For the second straight year, center-left Democrats have spent much of the campaign cycle attacking and undermining a compelling Muslim candidate who is also a target of the right. This is shameful and despicable. A Democratic Party t…
Eschatonblog.com · October 29, 2026
Democrats Have an Islamophobia Problem Too
For the second straight year, center-left Democrats have spent much of the campaign cycle attacking and undermining a compelling Muslim candidate who is also a target of the right. This is shameful and despicable. A Democratic Party that won’t fully accept Mu…
The New Republic · October 29, 2026
‘Break glass’ scenario revealed if Mike Johnson makes nightmare move before new House
Democrats are preparing for a doomsday scenario in which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) tries to keep their members from taking their seats if the party wins a majority next week, and one top Democrat has named the move that would set off alarms.Rep. Jim H…
Raw Story · October 27, 2026
'Stand With the People': Progressive Caucus Leader Calls on All Democrats to Reject AI Billionaire Cash
The chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus on Wednesday urged all Democrats to reject campaign cash from billionaires whose wealth stems from the artificial intelligence industry, following news that the president of OpenAI abandoned plans to donate mi…
Common Dreams · October 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗