New Jersey District 3 election, 2026

Herb Conaway vs. Michael McGuire.

VotePredictor forecast

Herb Conaway favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+22.2

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+9.5

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Herb Conaway

Incumbent representative for NJ-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Republican

Michael McGuire

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Ryan Kelly · Independent
Steven Welzer · Green

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-3. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New Jersey's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2018Andy Kim(D)D+1.3

2014Tom MacArthur(R)R+9.6

2012Jon Runyan(R)R+8.9

2010Jon Runyan(R)R+2.7

2008John H. Adler(D)D+4.2

Candidate news

New Jersey Lawmakers Push for Complete Ban on Gas Powered Lawn Mowers

TRENTON, N.J. — A new bill introduced in the New Jersey Legislature aims to phase out gas-powered lawn equipment statewide, prohibiting its sale within three years and its use within five. The bill, sponsored by Democratic Assemblymembers Herbert Conaway and …

Freerepublic.com · March 2, 2025

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NJ-2 · NJ-4