Democratic
Herb Conaway
Incumbent representative for NJ-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New Jersey District 3 election, 2026
Herb Conaway vs. Michael McGuire. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Herb Conaway favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+15.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+8.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Michael McGuire
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ryan Kelly · Independent
- Steven Welzer · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Herb ConawayDEM · incumbent$1.2M raised
Spent $754kCash on hand $436k6% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$114k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$54k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$46k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$22k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$21k
States
- NJ$299k
- MD$25k
- DC$21k
- MA$15k
- FL$12k
Michael McGuireREP$221k raised
Spent $205kCash on hand $17kDebts $79k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $21k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$98k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$29k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$7k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$4k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$3k
States
- NJ$64k
- TX$37k
- NY$25k
- FL$17k
- AZ$8k
Ryan KellyIND$6k raised
Spent $5kCash on hand $7629% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Jersey's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗