New York District 10 election, 2026

Brad Lander vs. Jennifer Moore.

VotePredictor forecast

Brad Lander favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+65.8

99%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+60.0

2026 national environment

D+6.5

District polls

none

Forecast spread

±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Brad Lander

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Jennifer Moore

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-10. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NY-1 · NY-11