VotePredictor
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New York District 1 election, 2026

Chris Gallant vs. Nick LaLota. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Nick LaLota favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+3.9
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Chris Gallant

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Nick LaLotaREP · incumbent$4.5M raised
Spent $2.8MCash on hand $2.3M3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$618k
  2. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$309k
  3. LALOTA VICTORY FUND$280k
  4. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$227k
  5. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$93k

Industries

  1. Retired$196k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$140k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$80k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$50k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$38k

States

  1. NY$812k
  2. FL$96k
  3. VA$75k
  4. DC$49k
  5. CA$47k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Chris GallantDEM$1.7M raised
Spent $1.3MCash on hand $426k30% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. FISHER, RON$10k
  2. CHESS, DANIEL$10k
  3. TOBIAS, ANDREW$7k
  4. BARTON, ELIZABETH$7k
  5. BAUCKE, THOMAS$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$507k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$163k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$60k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$35k
  5. Education & Academia$29k

States

  1. NY$787k
  2. CA$93k
  3. FL$71k
  4. PA$22k
  5. MA$20k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New York's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Nick LaLota(R)R+10.4
2020Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+11.8
2018Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+4.1
2016Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+16.4
2014Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+8.7
2012Timothy H. Bishop(D)D+4.6
2010Timothy H. Bishop(D)D+0.3
2002Timothy H. Bishop(D)D+1.5

Candidate news

Democrat used to model fetish gay sex attire

The private life of a Democrat running for Congress has made national news after old photos reveal he used to model leather sexual attire and other "bondage gear," according to a report from the New York Post.The Post confirmed that Chris Gallant, a 37-year-o…

TheBlaze · September 14, 2026
Congressional candidate modelled BDSM gear before turning to politics – and honestly, good for him

A New York Democratic congressional candidate is facing attention over a very unexpected part of his past. Chris Gallant, 37, who is running against Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in New York’s First Congressional District, previously appeared in BDSM-themed pro…

Thepinknews.com · September 14, 2026
NY Dem House candidate modeled for XXX-rated BDSM ads while serving in National Guard

This New York pol has a secret BDSM past. Chris Gallant, 37, the Democratic nominee running against Long Island Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) was previously involved in a very different kind of campaign: selling toys as a model for a fetish sex shop, The Post can r…

Freerepublic.com · September 14, 2026
Democratic Candidate Once Modeled for Fetish Sex Shop

“Chris Gallant, the Democratic nominee running against Long Island Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) was previously involved in a very different kind of campaign: selling toys as a model for a fetish sex shop,” the New York Post reports. “Gallant appeared in multiple p…

Politicalwire.com · September 13, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NV-4 · NY-10