New York District 1 election, 2026

Chris Gallant vs. Nick LaLota.

VotePredictor forecast

Nick LaLota favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+15.3

99%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+8.0

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Chris Gallant

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Nick LaLota

Incumbent representative for NY-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New York's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Nick LaLota(R)R+10.4

2020Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+7.3

2018Perry Gershon(D)D+1.0

2016Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+9.8

2014Lee M. Zeldin(R)R+4.9

2012Timothy H. Bishop(D)D+9.3

2010Timothy H. Bishop(D)D+9.9

2002Timothy H. Bishop(D)D+9.1

Candidate news

Democrat used to model fetish gay sex attire

The private life of a Democrat running for Congress has made national news after old photos reveal he used to model leather sexual attire and other "bondage gear," according to a report from the New York Post.The Post confirmed that Chris Gallant, a 37-year-o…

TheBlaze · September 14, 2026

Congressional candidate modelled BDSM gear before turning to politics – and honestly, good for him

A New York Democratic congressional candidate is facing attention over a very unexpected part of his past. Chris Gallant, 37, who is running against Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in New York’s First Congressional District, previously appeared in BDSM-themed pro…

Thepinknews.com · September 14, 2026

NY Dem House candidate modeled for XXX-rated BDSM ads while serving in National Guard

This New York pol has a secret BDSM past. Chris Gallant, 37, the Democratic nominee running against Long Island Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) was previously involved in a very different kind of campaign: selling toys as a model for a fetish sex shop, The Post can r…

Freerepublic.com · September 14, 2026

Democratic Candidate Once Modeled for Fetish Sex Shop

“Chris Gallant, the Democratic nominee running against Long Island Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) was previously involved in a very different kind of campaign: selling toys as a model for a fetish sex shop,” the New York Post reports. “Gallant appeared in multiple p…

Politicalwire.com · September 13, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NV-4 · NY-10