Democratic
George Latimer
Incumbent representative for NY-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New York District 16 election, 2026
George Latimer vs. Joseph Cinquemani. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
George Latimer favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+41.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+33.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Joseph Cinquemani
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026George LatimerDEM · incumbent$682k raised
Spent $741kCash on hand $134k9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$100k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$40k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$31k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$26k
- Retired$23k
States
- NY$282k
- CA$13k
- CT$6k
- IL$6k
- DC$6k
Joseph CinquemaniREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
First Responders Children's Foundation Presents Inaugural United for First Responder Families Award to Senator Jim Justice and Congressman George Latimer
Congressional leaders recognized for their support of the children of first responders at Capitol Hill reception PHOTOS: HERE Credit: First Responders Children's Foundation NEW YORK, Sept. 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Last night, First Responders Children's Found…
PRNewswire · September 16, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
Trump’s Revenge List Includes These Politicians, Leaders
President Donald Trump made over 100 threats to his adversaries during the 2024 campaign. Now that he’s back in office, many fear he will actually follow through with prosecuting his enemies big time. We’re just over a year into his second term, and Trump’s f…
The Root · May 11, 2026
Autopsy Results: Why the Democrats Lost in 2024—And How to Start Winning Again
Why and how did Kamala Harris lose the 2024 presidential race? How can Democrats learn from this preventable loss and turn the tide in 2026 and beyond? Even as this November’s election saw numerous hopeful Democratic victories—most notably the remarkable wins…
Common Dreams · December 12, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗