Democratic
Cait Conley
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Cait Conley favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.6
69%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+1.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
3, averaging D+1.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+4.5.
Republican
Mike Lawler
Incumbent representative for NY-17. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Emerson College2026-09-29D+2.0
co/efficient2026-07-22R+5.0
FM3 Research2026-07-01D+6.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 17th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Bruce Blakeman vows to end NY sanctuary policies as Mike Lawler drops F-bombs in attack on Gov. Kathy Hochul
GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman vowed Tuesday to end New York’s sanctuary state policies on his first day in office — as Rep. Mike Lawler unleashed a profanity-laced attack on Gov. Kathy Hochul. The Republicans gathered in Chappaqua alongside the fam…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
Bruce Blakeman vows to end NY sanctuary policies as Mike Lawler drops f-bombs in attack on Gov. Kathy Hochul
“The insanity is over, we’re putting New Yorkers first,” Blakeman declared. “On January 1st, as governor, I will sign an executive order, New York State is no longer a sanctuary state.”…
New York Post · October 6, 2026
As Trump's approval rating drops, Republicans begin to lose confidence in midterms
The US Capitol Building is seen on October 1, in Washington, DC. - Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing…
CNN · October 3, 2026
How Worried Should Dems Be About the GOP’s Huge Cash Advantage?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?Late Wednesday nig…
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗