Democratic
Cait Conley
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New York District 17 election, 2026
Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Cait Conley favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+3.1
72%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+1.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+0.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+6.3.
Republican
Mike Lawler
Incumbent representative for NY-17. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Cait ConleyDEM$10.7M raised
Spent $9.8MCash on hand $949k20% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$912k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$304k
- Retired$234k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$195k
- Legal & Professional Services$157k
States
- NY$1.6M
- CA$393k
- MA$183k
- DC$104k
- VA$102k
Mike LawlerREP · incumbent$10.3M raised
Spent $8.5MCash on hand $2.0M5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- LAWLER VICTORY FUND$1.7M
- GROW THE MAJORITY$854k
- DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$357k
- EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$350k
- LAWLER VICTORY FUND$282k
Industries
- Retired$880k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$439k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$291k
- Legal & Professional Services$105k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$49k
States
- NY$1.5M
- FL$365k
- CA$275k
- TX$231k
- NJ$144k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 17th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Cait Conley Flips New York Seat Held by Trump Ally Mike Lawler
Cait Conley has delivered Democrats one of their biggest House wins of the cycle, unseating Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in a suburban New York district that was a central goal for her party. Her victory helped push Democrats past 250 House seats, the New York…
Newser · Today
Lesbian combat veteran Cait Conley unseats Republican Mike Lawler in New York U.S. House race
New York voters have elected Cait Conley to Congress, sending a lesbian Army combat veteran who served under “don’t ask, don’t tell” to Washington and flipping a Republican-held House seat.
Advocate.com · Yesterday
Dems flip key New York House seat
Democrat Cait Conley defeated incumbent Republican Representative Mike Lawler in New York's 17th Congressional District, CNN projected, flipping a key battleground House seat for Democrats.Conley, a m...
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
US midterms: Pro-Israel Congressman Mike Lawler defeated in New York
Republican Congressman Mike Lawler, considered one of Israel's most prominent supporters in the US Congress, lost his reelection bid in New York to Democratic candidate Cait Conley.Lawler conceded defeat after the results of the race became clear.
Israelnationalnews.com · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗