Democratic
Cait Conley
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Cait Conley favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+3.0
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+3.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Mike Lawler
Incumbent representative for NY-17. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
co/efficient2026-07-22R+5.0
FM3 Research2026-07-01D+6.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 17th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
House Democrat Endorses Republican Mike Lawler
Truly, one of the more brain-dead Democrats around. Golden is retiring anyway, but he will not be missed. If you want to know why we can't have nice things, it's because of Democrats like Jared Golden. Source: New York Post WASHINGTON — Democratic Rep. Jared …
Crooksandliars.com · Today
Outgoing House Democrat backs incumbent Republican lawmaker for re-election
Outgoing Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine backed incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York for re-election ahead of the midterm election.
Fox News · Today
Golden provokes fellow House Democrats
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is once again frustrating his fellow Democrats after endorsing Republican New York Rep. Mike Lawler, a top target of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. In response, Jeffries dismissed Lawler as a “partisan hack and Trump sycoph…
Biztoc.com · Today
Democrat breaks ranks to BACK Trump ally in nail-biting race as liberal mutiny spreads to New York
New York Republican Mike Lawler is in an uphill battle this fall to be re-elected in one of five GOP-held congressional districts that were won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.
Dailymail.com · Yesterday
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗