Democratic
Patrick Halpin
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Andrew Garbarino favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+8.0
91%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+14.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Andrew Garbarino
Incumbent representative for NY-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
‘Abolish ICE’: Mamdani, AOC and other Democrats urge action after New York shooting - The Guardian
‘Abolish ICE’: Mamdani, AOC and other Democrats urge action after New York shootingThe Guardian Man shot and wounded by ICE agents during operation in New York City while in car with 5-year-oldCNN New York City’s Marble Hill residents furious after ICE shooti…
Slashdot.org · October 9, 2026
Top House chairman warns Congress against 'complacency' 25 years after 9/11
House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino warns Congress must stop being reactive to prevent another World Trade Center attack.
Fox News · September 11, 2026
Lawmakers Probe Growing Use of Chinese AI Models In US Companies
U.S. lawmakers are probing the growing use of Chinese AI models by American companies, citing concerns over censorship, security risks, and whether U.S. firms are turning to cheaper foreign models because domestic alternatives are too costly or restricted. Th…
Slashdot.org · July 9, 2026
Meta faces calls for Congress to probe scam ads targeting seniors
Retirement groups are calling on Congress to investigate Meta over a wave of social media scams targeting older Americans. In a letter sent Thursday to House Homeland Security Committee Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and ranking member Bennie Thompson (D-Mi…
Biztoc.com · June 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗