Democratic
Paul Tonko
Incumbent representative for NY-20. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Paul Tonko favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+20.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+14.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ralph Ambrosio
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-20. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-20; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 20th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
SENATOR RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-CT) AND REPRESENTATIVE PAUL TONKO (D-NY) TO JOIN KICK-OFF OF TRUTH AND INTEGRITY: THE MOVEMENT FOR GAMBLING REFORM
Lawmakers will join the Public Health Advocacy Institute (PHAI) and Families and Friends of Gamblers (FFOG) in Washington, D.C., on September 23, 2026, at event launching a national movement to bring accountability and comprehensive federal and state regulati…
PRNewswire · September 22, 2026
New York details its $542M broadband plan, including $287M in BEAD awards
New York details its $542M broadband plan, including $287M in BEAD awards New York Governor Kathy Hochul, U.S. Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, and U.S. Representative Paul Tonko announced that the state’s ConnectALL office has begun implementat…
Telecompetitor · April 28, 2026
The Fight to Save D.C.’s New Deal Sistine Chapel From Trump
The spendthrift ways of President Donald Trump are not confined to asking Congress for more than $200 billion to keep fighting a war in Iran that he can’t figure out how to end, or to pondering Ted Cruz’s plan to reduce capital gains taxation by somewhere bet…
The New Republic · March 27, 2026
A List of Every House Democrat Calling on Trump to Recognize Palestine
Democratic Representative Ro Khanna has collected almost 50 signatures on a petition of lawmakers urging the Trump administration to acknowledge the State of Palestine. Since the letter was first reported early last month, dozens of House Democrats have signe…
The New Republic · September 25, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗