Democratic
Josh Riley
Incumbent representative for NY-19. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Josh Riley favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+8.0
91%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+2.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Peter Oberacker
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-19. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-19; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 19th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Riley introduces bill to restore health coverage for 450,000 New Yorkers
WASHINGTON, DC — Representative Josh Riley (NY-19) has introduced the Restoring Essential Plan Coverage Act to reinstate federal funding for New York’s Essential Plan and restore health coverage …
Riverreporter.com · October 6, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
‘We’re Going to Come After You’: Casar Puts Corporate Interests on Notice With Affordability Agenda
The leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus sent a message on Wednesday to corporations that are hiking prices on American consumers at the gas pump, the grocery store, the medicine counter, and elsewhere: "We're going to come after you."In an intervie…
Common Dreams · April 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗