Democratic
Josh Riley
Incumbent representative for NY-19. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New York District 19 election, 2026
Josh Riley vs. Peter Oberacker. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Josh Riley favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+10.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+2.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±3.7 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Peter Oberacker
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-19. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Josh RileyDEM · incumbent$6.0M raised
Spent $4.3MCash on hand $1.8M10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.6M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$362k
- Legal & Professional Services$347k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$254k
- Technology & Communications$122k
States
- NY$1.9M
- CA$467k
- MA$252k
- DC$207k
- MD$189k
Peter OberackerREP$1.4M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $23kDebts $100k19% from donors under $200Self-funded $130k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$110k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$8k
- Legal & Professional Services$8k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$7k
States
- NY$167k
- MI$21k
- TX$12k
- CA$11k
- FL$10k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-19; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 19th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Dem Rep. Josh Riley cruises to 2nd term in upstate NY swing seat after GOP abandons challenger
Democratic Rep. Josh Riley cruised to a second term Tuesday, beating Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker for the competitive upstate New York district.
New York Post · November 4, 2026
Republicans apparently surrender doomed races as election map gets grimmer: analysis
With the midterms a day away, strategists in both parties have written off several races once billed as top contests, according to a report from Politico.More than a dozen Senate and House races have been triaged, and the report says they're now expecting an …
Raw Story · November 2, 2026
Riley introduces bill to restore health coverage for 450,000 New Yorkers
WASHINGTON, DC — Representative Josh Riley (NY-19) has introduced the Restoring Essential Plan Coverage Act to reinstate federal funding for New York’s Essential Plan and restore health coverage …
Riverreporter.com · October 6, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗