Democratic
Brian Poindexter
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Ohio District 7 election, 2026
Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Brian Poindexter favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.3
52%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+11.22026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
3, averaging D+7.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+7.5.
Republican
Max Miller
Incumbent representative for OH-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Bedrock Polling2026-08-10D+8.0
Tavern Research2026-08-05D+8.0
Unknown (Reported by NOTUS)2026-07-30D+5.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
How Rep. Max Miller and His Lawyer Try to Silence Foes
A few months ago, as Mother Jones prepared to publish an investigation about allegations of physical abuse against three women by Ohio Republican Rep. Max Miller, his crisis communications adviser warned me that Miller has “many defamation lawyers.” When I as…
Mother Jones · October 14, 2026
Trump lashes out at protester disrupting Ohio rally: 'They're scum!'
President Donald Trump lashed out at a protester who disrupted his rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on Monday, calling the person a "paid protester" and "scum."Trump traveled to Ohio to stump for Republicans such as Sen. John Husted (R-OH) and Senate candidate Mich…
Raw Story · October 12, 2026
Rep. Max Miller’s Girlfriend Was Just Indicted
On Thursday, the woman Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) has been dating for nearly two years was indicted by a grand jury on three criminal counts: grand theft, telecommunications fraud, and misuse of a credit card. The charges against Jaclyn Alatrash, first reported…
Mother Jones · October 9, 2026
Ohio Republican Facing Abuse Allegations Slams Home State Senate Candidate
As Ohio’s Senate race emerges as a critical battleground, Republican Senator Jon Husted faced attacks from GOP Representative Max Miller on the campaign trail, according to a new report from The Wall Street Journal. Husted is facing a competitive reelection c…
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗