Democratic
Elizabeth Kirtley
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 6 election, 2026
Elizabeth Kirtley vs. Michael Rulli on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Michael Rulli favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+34.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Michael Rulli
Incumbent representative for OH-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OH-6. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Michael RulliREP · incumbent$1.4M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $418k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- RULLI VICTORY FUND$246k
- LAMONCHA, MARK$11k
- ARNOLD, JOHN$7k
- WILHEIM, DINA$7k
- WILHEIM, RONALD$7k
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$30k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$21k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$18k
- Retired$16k
- Legal & Professional Services$15k
States
- OH$100k
- VA$34k
- NY$30k
- TX$22k
- DC$17k
Elizabeth KirtleyDEM$11k raised
Spent $7kCash on hand $4kDebts $2k24% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2k
- Technology & Communications$1k
- Retired$585
- Not Reported$443
- Self-Employed & Freelance$207
States
- OH$2k
- MD$1k
- VA$1k
- NC$792
- CA$443
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Australia’s Response to the Bondi Beach Shooting Says Everything
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The New Republic · December 16, 2025
Democrat policies paved way for brutal Cincinnati attack, say Ohio Republicans: 'Fear and chaos'
Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno called for Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval's resignation following a viral downtown beatdown while Rep. Michael Rulli criticized left-wing policies.
Fox News · July 29, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗