Democratic
Jena Nelson
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Oklahoma District 5 election, 2026
Jena Nelson vs. Stephanie Bice. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Stephanie Bice favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+10.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+18.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Stephanie Bice
Incumbent representative for OK-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Robert Henri · Independent
- Austin Nieves · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OK-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Stephanie BiceREP · incumbent$2.5M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $1.1M3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$77k
- Legal & Professional Services$55k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$44k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$43k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$32k
States
- OK$264k
- VA$100k
- TX$57k
- DC$41k
- CA$28k
Jena NelsonDEM$822k raised
Spent $713kCash on hand $109k32% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$166k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$60k
- Retired$42k
- Not Reported$18k
- Legal & Professional Services$10k
States
- OK$464k
- GA$14k
- CA$13k
- IL$9k
- NY$8k
Robert HenriIND$6k raised
Spent $5kCash on hand $2k2% from donors under $200Self-funded $6k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OK-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Oklahoma's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
John Thompson: Republicans in Oklahoma are Worried About the Election
John Thompson, historian and retired teacher in Oklahoma, keeps us up to date about the political winds in his state. He writes: My Congresswoman, Stephanie Bice (R-OK), has been getting national attention since the Bulwark revealed an audio of Bice telling R…
Dianeravitch.net · September 18, 2026
ESA Announces 2026 Recipients of the Interactive Entertainment Impact Awards
Representative Stephanie Bice (R-OK), Representative Jim McGovern (D-MA) and iCivics recognized as champions of the U.S. video game industry WASHINGTON, July 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Entertainment Software Association (ESA) today announced the 2026 recipi…
PRNewswire · July 15, 2026
Mullin promises to earn Dem votes as GOP colleagues pounce on his seat
Oklahoma Republicans rush to claim Sen. Markwayne Mullin's Senate seat after his nomination to run DHS, with Reps. Stephanie Bice and Kevin Hern eyeing the job.
Fox News · March 6, 2026
Stephanie Bice and Kevin Hern eye Oklahoma Senate seat if Mullin heads to DHS (Rachel Schilke/Washington Examiner)
Rachel Schilke / Washington Examiner: Stephanie Bice and Kevin Hern eye Oklahoma Senate seat if Mullin heads to DHS — Two House Republicans from Oklahoma are weighing a run for the Senate after President Donald Trump announced Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) i…
Memeorandum.com · March 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗