Democratic
Brendan Boyle
Incumbent representative for PA-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Pennsylvania District 2 election, 2026
Brendan Boyle vs. Jessica Arriaga. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Brendan Boyle favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+45.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+36.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jessica Arriaga
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Brendan BoyleDEM · incumbent$2.9M raised
Spent $828kCash on hand $5.9M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$132k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$106k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$57k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$38k
- Legal & Professional Services$27k
States
- PA$143k
- NY$92k
- CA$68k
- FL$47k
- DC$30k
Jessica ArriagaREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Mutiny threat looms over Trump’s ‘most dangerous’ insider as Dems win the gavel: analyst
One of President Donald Trump's most powerful yet little-known officials faces a threat from inside his own office, an analyst warned.Catherine Rampell argued in a Thursday analysis in The Bulwark that Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought's…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Democrats take control of Congress and put Trump's economic agenda in their sights
Democrats retook power in Washington on Tuesday after flipping key House and Senate seats to command majorities in both chambers of Congress.The party secured control of the Senate after winning a series of races in historically red states including Texas, So…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Dem Rep. Boyle: We're Not Being Leader of Free World with Russia, First Priority for Dem Congress Will Be Defunding Iran War
On Tuesday’s broadcast of MS NOW’s “11th Hour,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) said that the United States’ approach to the Russia-Ukraine war is moving “away from the historic role as leader of the free world,” and that cutting off funding The post Dem Rep. Boyle…
Breitbart News · October 21, 2026
John Fetterman Mistakenly Calls Himself a “Lifelong Republican”
Senator John Fetterman seemed to forget where he stands politically over the weekend.At the Texas Tribune Festival Saturday, the Pennsylvania Democrat was asked why he wouldn’t become an independent considering the stances and votes he has taken in defiance o…
The New Republic · September 28, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗