Democratic
Veronica Escobar
Incumbent representative for TX-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 16 election, 2026
Veronica Escobar vs. Adam Bauman on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Veronica Escobar favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+22.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+16.62026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Adam Bauman
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗