Democratic
Veronica Escobar
Incumbent representative for TX-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 16 election, 2026
Veronica Escobar vs. Adam Bauman on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Veronica Escobar favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+19.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+16.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Adam Bauman
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Veronica EscobarDEM · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $967kCash on hand $217k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$122k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$55k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$46k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$38k
- Legal & Professional Services$26k
States
- TX$437k
- DC$22k
- PR$17k
- CA$15k
- VA$11k
Adam BaumanREP$3k raised
Spent $520Cash on hand $3kSelf-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- BAUMAN, ADAM$2k
- ARMIJO, SAM$500
- LUJAN, AL$500
- MUNOZ, TONY$500
Industries
- Retired$1k
States
- TX$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗