Democratic
Bobby Pulido
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Texas District 15 election, 2026
Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Monica De La Cruz favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+9.3
91%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+18.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Monica De La Cruz
Incumbent representative for TX-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-07-30D+5.0
Applecart2026-05-25D+2.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
GOP shifts midterm priorities as concerns turn to defending seats in red states
Republicans are playing defense deep in their own territory as voter anger over price hikes puts more House and Senate seats in play in the midterms.New rounds of big spending, visits from Trump administration officials and private conversations among top GOP…
Yahoo Entertainment · Today
What Is This Bipartisan Data Center Bill Really About?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonWhat is this bipartisan data center bill really about?On Tuesday, Congress will co…
The New Republic · September 15, 2026
Mexican-American GOP Rep Touts Border Achievements And Tax Deductions During RNC Speech
By PEDRO RODRIGUEZ, The Daily Signal | September 10, 2026 Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas, championed historic border achievements and the Working Families Tax Cuts during her speech at the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, …
Biztoc.com · September 11, 2026
Mexican-American GOP Rep Touts Border Achievements and Tax Deductions During RNC Speech
Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas, championed historic border achievements and the Working Families Tax Cuts during her speech at the Republican National Convention in Dallas, Texas, on Wednesday. De La Cruz, who opened her speech by talking about the dignity o…
Daily Signal · September 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗