Democratic
Bobby Pulido
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 15 election, 2026
Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Monica De La Cruz favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+3.0
72%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+18.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
3, averaging D+6.7Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+14.3.
Republican
Monica De La Cruz
Incumbent representative for TX-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Normington, Petts & Associates2026-09-28D+13.0
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-07-30D+5.0
Applecart2026-05-25D+2.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
’Let’s be fair’: GOP lawmaker clashes with CNN anchor in tense ICE showdown
Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) repeatedly clashed with CNN anchor Boris Sanchez on Wednesday as he pressed her over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, refusing to let her sidestep questions about the detention of immigrants in her South Texas dist…
Raw Story · October 14, 2026
'Terrorized' battlegrounds turn into 'ghost towns' as ICE swarms early voting
As early voting in the midterm elections gets underway, voting and immigrant rights organizers across the country are bracing for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deployments at polling places.In south Texas and Maine, organizers are mobilizing volunt…
Raw Story · October 14, 2026
Texas rep ran ad starring cop fired for alleged sexual harassment and stalking
A recent ad by Rep. Monica De La Cruz spotlighted an endorsement from a cop who was fired from his prior job last year for alleged sexual harassment and stalking of a co-worker, The Post has learned.
New York Post · October 9, 2026
Transcript: Trump Polls Turn Brutal as Allies Panic: “Worse than 2006”
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 9 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Today we’re…
The New Republic · October 8, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗