Texas District 30 election, 2026

Frederick Haynes III vs. Everett Jackson on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Frederick Haynes III favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+53.6

99%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+47.8

2026 national environment

D+6.5

District polls

none

Forecast spread

±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Frederick Haynes III

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Everett Jackson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-30. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-30; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: TX-3 · TX-31