Democratic
Justin Early
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 31 election, 2026
Justin Early vs. John Carter on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
John Carter favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.0
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+22.12026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
John Carter
Incumbent representative for TX-31. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Greg Stoker · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-31. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-31; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 31st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
HydroGraph Hosts Congressman John Carter to Celebrate New Texas Headquarters, Showcases America’s Emerging Domestic Supply of Ultra-Pure Graphene
AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 11, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — HydroGraph Clean Power Inc. (CSE: HG) (OTCQB: HGRAF) (“HydroGraph” or the “Company”) today marked a key milestone in its U.S. growth strategy with the full opening of its Texas headquarters and continued advance…
Financial Post · August 11, 2026
'It's a problem': GOP struggling to rein in elderly lawmakers who won't step aside
While Democrats grapple with a generational push to oust elderly lawmakers, Republicans are confronting their own severe aging problem — with the party led by a 79-year-old president and dominated by lawmakers in their 70s and 80s who show no signs of steppin…
Raw Story · May 26, 2026
Anti-LGBTQ+ Republican claims voting was rigged after losing primary by landslide
Anti-LGBTQ+ Republican Valentina Gomez, who previously filmed an offensive “weak and gay” ad, claims voting was rigged after another landslide primary loss. Gomez lost her congressional race in Texas to Republican representative John Carter, who is 84. Carte…
Thepinknews.com · March 5, 2026
The “ShamWow guy” is running for Congress in Texas with a goal to destroy wokism
The man behind one of the 2000s’s most recognizable infomercials stepped into Texas politics last week. Offer Vince Shlomi, known commonly as the ShamWow guy, filed paperwork to run for Congress as a Republican, according to state election records. His campai…
The Daily Dot · November 28, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗