Democratic
Justin Early
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 31 election, 2026
Justin Early vs. John Carter on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
John Carter favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+16.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.72026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
John Carter
Incumbent representative for TX-31. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-31. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-31; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
'It's a problem': GOP struggling to rein in elderly lawmakers who won't step aside
While Democrats grapple with a generational push to oust elderly lawmakers, Republicans are confronting their own severe aging problem — with the party led by a 79-year-old president and dominated by lawmakers in their 70s and 80s who show no signs of steppin…
Raw Story · May 26, 2026
Anti-LGBTQ+ Republican claims voting was rigged after losing primary by landslide
Anti-LGBTQ+ Republican Valentina Gomez, who previously filmed an offensive “weak and gay” ad, claims voting was rigged after another landslide primary loss. Gomez lost her congressional race in Texas to Republican representative John Carter, who is 84. Carte…
Thepinknews.com · March 5, 2026
The “ShamWow guy” is running for Congress in Texas with a goal to destroy wokism
The man behind one of the 2000s’s most recognizable infomercials stepped into Texas politics last week. Offer Vince Shlomi, known commonly as the ShamWow guy, filed paperwork to run for Congress as a Republican, according to state election records. His campai…
The Daily Dot · November 28, 2025
The 'ShamWow guy' is running for Congress in Texas (Ben Kamisar/NBC News)
Ben Kamisar / NBC News: The ‘ShamWow guy’ is running for Congress in Texas — Offer Vince Shlomi, the once-prominent infomercial pitchman, filed paperwork with the Texas Republican Party to run for the seat held by Republican Rep. John Carter. — The “ShamW…
Memeorandum.com · November 24, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗