Democratic
Evan Hunt
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 3 election, 2026
Evan Hunt vs. Keith Self on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Keith Self favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+18.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+24.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Keith Self
Incumbent representative for TX-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Keith SelfREP$887k raised
Spent $704kCash on hand $292k20% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ADAMS, CAROL A$14k
- HILTON, W.D.$11k
- GAMBLE, DAVID$10k
- DOSHIER, TODD$9k
- MULLIQI, GINO$9k
Industries
- Retired$100k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$75k
- Not Reported$53k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$17k
- Transportation & Logistics$7k
States
- TX$340k
- NY$28k
- VA$19k
- IL$15k
- WI$11k
Evan HuntDEM$703k raised
Spent $647kCash on hand $56kDebts $76k47% from donors under $200Self-funded $75k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$124k
- Technology & Communications$9k
- Legal & Professional Services$9k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$6k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$5k
States
- TX$173k
- CA$35k
- NY$20k
- VA$9k
- MA$8k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Could DSA Members Be Blocked from Congress? Obscure Rule Explained
Republican lawmakers are considering challenging newly elected socialists from taking their seats in Congress after next week's midterm elections. Republican Representative Keith Self of Texas has suggested that members of the Democratic Socialists of America…
Biztoc.com · October 30, 2026
Little-known rule could stop socialists from being sworn into Congress
Rep. Keith Self says he could challenge Democratic Socialists of America members' right to take the House oath of office in the new Congress.
Fox News · October 29, 2026
FBI Thwarts [Islamic Terrorist] Assassination Planned for Texas Congressman Keith Self
A 17-year-old McKinney resident has been arrested and charged by the FBI for planning to assassinate U.S. Rep. Keith Self and carry out an allegedly ISIS-inspired terrorist attack in North Texas. According to reports, the bureau arrested the would-be assassin…
Freerepublic.com · October 23, 2026
FBI Thwarts [Islamic Terrorist] Assassination Planned for Texas Congressman Keith Self
A 17-year-old McKinney resident has been arrested and charged by the FBI for planning to assassinate U.S. Rep. Keith Self and carry out an allegedly ISIS-inspired terrorist attack in North Texas. According to reports, the bureau arrested the would-be assassin…
Freerepublic.com · October 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗