Democratic
Shannon Taylor
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Shannon Taylor favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.8
55%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+5.22026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Rob Wittman
Incumbent representative for VA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-1. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Dems select their candidate to face longtime GOP lawmaker who balked Virginia redistricting
A crowded seven-candidate Democratic primary in Virginia's 1st Congressional District sets up a November showdown against Rep. Rob Wittman.
Fox News · August 5, 2026
GOP fight brews as MAGA Republican vies for powerful chair against battleground colleague
A fight is taking shape in the House for control of a powerful committee chairmanship — with a militant MAGA lawmaker going against a vice chair who faces one of the toughest re-election battles of his life.According to Meredith Lee Hill of Politico, Rep. Ron…
Raw Story · July 13, 2026
GOP Rep Does The Old Fake Phone Call Trick
You can understand a Republican congressman in a district that barely voted for Trump in 2024 being a bit antsy when asked about Mike Johnson's plan to cut Social Security, but pretending to talk on his phone while talking to no one was borderline bizarre, ev…
Crooksandliars.com · June 11, 2026
Virginia Republican Appears to Fake Phone Call to Dodge Question About GOP's Social Security Cuts Plan
A vulnerable House Republican went to comedic lengths on Tuesday to avoid answering questions about Speaker Mike Johnson's plans for possible Social Security cuts.The Republican Speaker was recorded earlier this week saying that under a GOP plan to be release…
Common Dreams · June 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗