VotePredictor
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Virginia District 1 election, 2026

Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Shannon Taylor favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.8
56%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+5.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
4, averaging D+1.3
Forecast spread
±5.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 4 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said D+0.3.

Democratic

Shannon Taylor

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

4 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
DCCC Targeting Team (via Wikipedia)10-25D+1.0
Public Policy PollingGrade A-10-22D+1.0
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government09-28D+4.0
DCCC Targeting Team (via Wikipedia)09-17R+1.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Rob WittmanREP · incumbent$5.4M raised
Spent $6.0MCash on hand $797k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. WITTMAN VICTORY COMMITTEE$1.1M
  2. GROW THE MAJORITY$632k
  3. LALOTA VICTORY FUND$48k
  4. AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUND$34k
  5. JOYCE, HUGH$14k

Industries

  1. Retired$224k
  2. Defense & Aerospace$159k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$112k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$94k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$94k

States

  1. VA$1.1M
  2. FL$112k
  3. CA$97k
  4. TX$76k
  5. DC$73k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Shannon TaylorDEM$4.6M raised
Spent $4.0MCash on hand $599k17% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. SHANNON TAYLOR VICTORY FUND$133k
  2. DEM RISING 2026$86k
  3. LURIA TAYLOR VICTORY FUND$76k
  4. VIRGINIA CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY FUND 2026$34k
  5. MAJORITY MAKERS VICTORY FUND$20k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.4M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$311k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$122k
  4. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$102k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$75k

States

  1. VA$1.4M
  2. CA$344k
  3. NY$211k
  4. MA$154k
  5. DC$133k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

With election, Virginia loses a chance for a key committee post

Tuesday’s election results mean Virginia loses a chance that one of its own — Rep. Rob Wittman, R-1st — could lead the House Armed Services Committee.

Richmond.com · November 4, 2026
Is It the Dems’ Big Night? Watch These Eight Races With Early Results.

One fact that’s generally true about elections is that if the wind is blowing one way in state A, it’s probably blowing in the same direction in states B, C, D, and so on. In 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in all seven swing states. They were all close…

The New Republic · November 3, 2026
House's fate now hinges on 8 GOP incumbents — and they've all messed up

House Republicans can’t afford to make mistakes ahead of the upcoming midterm election — but that isn’t stopping them. As the majority party fights to keep its control of Congress, and protect President Donald Trump and his powerful allies from the investigat…

Raw Story · October 29, 2026
5 things to know about the Henrico Doctors' abuse case and Shannon Taylor's race for Congress

The prosecutor in the case, Shannon Taylor, is running for Congress. Her opponent, Rep. Rob Wittman, R-1st, is attacking Taylor for her work in the case, including a plea agreement that resulted in a three-year sentence.

Richmond.com · October 27, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: UT-4 · VA-10