VotePredictor
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Utah District 4 election, 2026

Jonny Larsen vs. Mike Kennedy on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Mike Kennedy favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+33.5
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging R+8.8
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+29.0.

Democratic

Jonny Larsen

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Mike Kennedy

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Steven Burt · Independent
  • Taylor Wright · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Lighthouse Research09-17R+8.8

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Mike KennedyREP · incumbent$1.2M raised
Spent $886kCash on hand $449kDebts $225k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MIKE KENNEDY VICTORY FUND$50k
  2. BAUGH, CASEY$21k
  3. ANDERSON, SCOTT$15k
  4. KENNEDY, HUGH RUSSELL$12k
  5. ALDER, MELANIE$11k

Industries

  1. Retired$68k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$61k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$55k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$14k
  5. Education & Academia$10k

States

  1. UT$376k
  2. VA$31k
  3. CA$19k
  4. DC$17k
  5. MI$13k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Jonny LarsenDEM$88k raised
Spent $83kCash on hand $5kDebts $40k20% from donors under $200Self-funded $42k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. LARSEN, JONATHAN$36k
  2. POPADICH, CATHLEEN$3k
  3. BLAKEY, COLETTE$3k
  4. POPADICH, WILLIAM$3k
  5. SORIANO, MARIA$2k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$19k
  2. Retired$2k
  3. Defense & Aerospace$1k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$744
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$500

States

  1. UT$20k
  2. SD$6k
  3. MD$2k
  4. VA$417
  5. WI$250
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Steven BurtIND$40k raised
Spent $38kCash on hand $2k11% from donors under $200Self-funded $6k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. BURT, STEVEN$6k
  2. ADAMS, CASEY$5k
  3. BURT, BECKY$4k
  4. FREEMAN, JOSH$4k
  5. NEWMAN, JEREMY$1k

Industries

  1. Retired$7k
  2. Legal & Professional Services$4k
  3. Education & Academia$500
  4. Energy, Utilities & Mining$324
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$250

States

  1. UT$25k
  2. PA$1k
  3. NJ$1k
  4. TX$1k
  5. NY$324
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for UT-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Utah's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2020Burgess Owens(R)R+1.0
2018Ben McAdams(D)D+0.3
2016Mia B. Love(R)R+12.4
2014Mia B. Love(R)R+5.1
2012Jim Matheson(D)D+0.3

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: UT-3 · VA-1