Democratic
James Walkinshaw
Incumbent representative for VA-11. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Virginia District 11 election, 2026
James Walkinshaw vs. Arthur Purves. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
James Walkinshaw favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+40.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+34.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Arthur Purves
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Dianne Blais · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-11. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026James WalkinshawDEM · incumbent$3.3M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $1.1M14% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- KIM, BRIAN$20k
- GRIMM, RODMAN$14k
- GRIMM, ROSE$14k
- MILLER, ERIC$14k
- KIM, MICHELLE$14k
Industries
- Unemployed$399k
- Not Reported$143k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$106k
- Retired$61k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$56k
States
- VA$1.3M
- MD$115k
- DC$99k
- UT$30k
- PA$22k
Arthur PurvesREP$39k raised
Spent $19kCash on hand $20kDebts $4k19% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
'Scared?' Furious Dem dares Trump admin to look victims' children 'in the eye'
An angry Democrat dared the Trump administration to look the children of men killed by immigration officers in the eye — but suggested they might be too scared. Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA) slammed the Trump administration for failing to attend a public heari…
Raw Story · July 25, 2026
'Imagine All the Better Things That Could Have Been Done': Trump Has Blown $37.5 Billion on Iran War
While economists have warned for months that the true cost of President Donald Trump's illegal war on Iran could be trillions of dollars, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated on Tuesday that it's currently about $37.5 billion.That figure came from a li…
Common Dreams · July 21, 2026
'Massive Trump fraud' prompts probe over 'hostile takeover' of July 4th event: report
House Democrats are alleging "massive Trump fraud" in a new probe that accuses the White House of staging a "hostile takeover" of America's 250th birthday celebration, according to one journalist.In a Thursday broadcast, investigative journalist Scott MacFarl…
Raw Story · July 2, 2026
Rep. James Walkinshaw on funding for ICE and the future of immigration enforcement
Congress has passed funding for ICE and Border Patrol through the rest of President Trump's second term. NPR's Michel Martin speaks with Democratic Rep. James Walkinshaw of Virginia.
NPR · June 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗