VotePredictor
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Virginia District 2 election, 2026

Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Elaine Luria favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+3.1
72%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+0.2
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
2, averaging D+1.5
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+5.0.

Democratic

Elaine Luria

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • J. Matt Baker · Independent
  • Geral Staten · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

2 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Christopher Newport University (via Wikipedia)10-10D+3.0
Tulchin Research07-13EVEN

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Elaine LuriaDEM$8.0M raised
Spent $7.6MCash on hand $479k42% from donors under $200Self-funded $8k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 2026$730k
  2. ELAINE LURIA VICTORY FUND$153k
  3. LURIA TAYLOR VICTORY FUND$66k
  4. LURIA PERRIELLO VICTORY FUND$45k
  5. DEM RISING 2026$44k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$2.8M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$481k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$235k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$136k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$101k

States

  1. VA$2.0M
  2. CA$630k
  3. NY$463k
  4. MA$285k
  5. DC$225k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Jen KiggansREP · incumbent$7.6M raised
Spent $6.3MCash on hand $1.3M25% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$830k
  2. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$368k
  3. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$322k
  4. KIGGANS VICTORY FUND$227k
  5. GOP WINNING WOMEN 2026$138k

Industries

  1. Retired$1.4M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$173k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$141k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$94k
  5. Defense & Aerospace$40k

States

  1. VA$1.9M
  2. FL$166k
  3. TX$163k
  4. CA$113k
  5. NY$74k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
J. Matt BakerIND$8k raised
Spent $2kCash on hand $6k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MOORE, MARK$1k
  2. WALTON, CADE$1k
  3. ABIOUNESS, KAY$500
  4. SKELLEY, SUZANNE$287

Industries

  1. Retired$787

States

  1. VA$2k
  2. TX$1k
  3. MD$287
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Virginia's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Jennifer A. Kiggans(R)R+3.8
2022Jen A. Kiggans(R)R+3.4
2020Elaine G. Luria(D)D+5.8
2018Elaine G. Luria(D)D+2.2
2012E. Scott Rigell(R)R+7.7
2010E. Scott Rigell(R)R+10.7
2008Glenn C. Nye(D)D+4.9
2006Thelma D. Drake(R)R+2.8

Candidate news

Virginia voters cement swing-district rematch after Dems’ redistricting fail

Elaine Luria secures the Democratic nomination in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, setting up a high-stakes rematch with Rep. Jennifer Kiggans.

Fox News · August 4, 2026
PM Netanyahu meets with AIPAC congressional delegation

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Thursday with a bipartisan delegation of US Congress members organized by AIPAC at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem.The Prime Minister thanked the delegation members for their consistent support for the State o…

Israelnationalnews.com · January 29, 2026
Venmo accounts found for 50 members of Congress — and 30 Trump admin officials: report

Spending habits of 50 members of Congress and 30 officials in President Donald Trump's administration are on display in publicly accessible Venmo account, according to a report Tuesday.NOTUS reporter Mark Alfred sifted through the accounts and the associated …

Raw Story · April 8, 2025
Democrats recruited third-party candidates to siphon votes from Republicans — which could decide close Virginia congressional contest

Candidate recruitment from a furtive political organization could threaten a tight Virginia congressional race, returning the Commonwealth’s 2nd District to Democratic hands. The Patriots Run Project, a group linked to Democrat-aligned campaign firms, scouted…

New York Post · September 16, 2024

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: VA-11 · VA-3