Democratic
Bobby Scott
Incumbent representative for VA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Virginia District 3 election, 2026
Bobby Scott vs. Edwin Rivera. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bobby Scott favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+45.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+35.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Edwin Rivera
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Makiba Gaines · Independent
- Stephen Woll · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bobby ScottDEM · incumbent$882k raised
Spent $886kCash on hand $162kDebts $3k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$79k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$47k
- Legal & Professional Services$29k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$26k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$23k
States
- VA$316k
- DC$26k
- TX$16k
- CA$11k
- MD$9k
Stephen WollIND$68k raised
Spent $52kCash on hand $15kDebts $35k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $35k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$17k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$1k
- Technology & Communications$1k
States
- VA$14k
- PA$13k
- MT$1k
- SC$1k
- CA$500
Edwin RiveraREP$15k raised
Spent $11kCash on hand $5k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$3k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$209
- Self-Employed & Freelance$209
States
- VA$2k
- NC$1k
- MD$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗