Democratic
Jennifer McClellan
Incumbent representative for VA-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Virginia District 4 election, 2026
Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jennifer McClellan favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+42.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+33.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Robert Murray
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Joan Bell · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jennifer McClellanDEM · incumbent$1.5M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $223k7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$180k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$46k
- Technology & Communications$45k
- Legal & Professional Services$34k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
States
- VA$446k
- DC$54k
- CA$40k
- MD$18k
- NY$10k
Robert MurrayREP$2k raised
Spent $41Cash on hand $2k51% from donors under $200Self-funded $6
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- JAMES, MARK WAYNE$300
- FRY, BRYAN$250
- MORONEY, ANNE$209
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$300
- Retired$209
States
- VA$759
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
SCOTUS Voting Rights ruling ignores ‘over 100 years of history’: Congressional Black Caucus member
Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, joins Meet the Press NOW as Virginia Democrats ask the U.S. Supreme Court to res...
Yahoo Entertainment · May 12, 2026
Virginia wilderness areas under threat, Kaine and McClellan warn
Virginians need to push back against President Donald Trump’s proposal to rescind one of the most important regulations protecting wilderness areas, Sen. Tim Kaine and Rep, Jennifer McClellan, D-4th, said.
Richmond.com · January 12, 2026
Good Trouble Lives On
Taking a break from the awful to celebrate - remember that? - indefatigable civil rights icon, all-round mensch and former chicken preacher John Lewis, who died five years ago today after a lifetime of good trouble. The peerless "moral compass of Congress," n…
Common Dreams · July 17, 2025
Virginia Dem: GOP tax cuts would be on 'backs of millions of Americans' (Elizabeth Crisp/The Hill)
Elizabeth Crisp / The Hill: Virginia Dem: GOP tax cuts would be on ‘backs of millions of Americans’ — Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) warned during an appearance on NewsNation's “The Hill Sunday” that the tax cuts that have been floated in GOP budget propos…
Memeorandum.com · May 18, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗