Democratic
Tom Perriello
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
John McGuire favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+14.6
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+11.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
John McGuire
Incumbent representative for VA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Cooke Harvey · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-5. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Virginia's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republicans are quiet-quitting Trump's big party with suspiciously timed conflicts: report
GOP candidates in competitive House races told a columnist they don't know whether they'll appear at President Donald Trump's midterm convention because of scheduling conflicts.In a Tuesday column, political commentator Joe Perticone noted a "conveniently tim…
Raw Story · September 1, 2026
Republican Lawmaker Discovers A New Conspiracy Theory: The BLT Sandwich
Virginia GOP Rep. John McGuire appeared on Newsmax following Dr. Anthony Fauci's roughly three-hour hearing before the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday, which left Sen. Rand Paul going full crazy pants on the government's former top infectious …
Crooksandliars.com · July 30, 2026
Democrats post early fundraising edge in marquee 2026 Senate races - Politico
Democrats post early fundraising edge in marquee 2026 Senate racesPolitico Democrats continue to outraise Republicans in key Senate racesRoll Call 4Q25 Fundraising Reports: Massive $$$ Lead for Sen. Mark Warner; Republican Reps. Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, John…
Slashdot.org · February 1, 2026
Virginia GOP Rep Says Multiple Law Enforcement Officials Shot
Multiple law enforcement officers were shot Wednesday in southern Virginia, according to an X post from Republican Virginia Rep. John McGuire.
The Daily Caller · August 14, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗