Democratic
Tom Perriello
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
John McGuire favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+7.0
87%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+12.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+5.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+8.3.
Republican
John McGuire
Incumbent representative for VA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Cooke Harvey · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government2026-09-28R+5.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Virginia's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Dems Might Just Have a Shot in This Very Unlikely District
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Virginia’s 5th congressional district is rural, evangelical, and red. But, in a t…
The New Republic · October 8, 2026
Republicans are quiet-quitting Trump's big party with suspiciously timed conflicts: report
GOP candidates in competitive House races told a columnist they don't know whether they'll appear at President Donald Trump's midterm convention because of scheduling conflicts.In a Tuesday column, political commentator Joe Perticone noted a "conveniently tim…
Raw Story · September 1, 2026
Republican Lawmaker Discovers A New Conspiracy Theory: The BLT Sandwich
Virginia GOP Rep. John McGuire appeared on Newsmax following Dr. Anthony Fauci's roughly three-hour hearing before the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday, which left Sen. Rand Paul going full crazy pants on the government's former top infectious …
Crooksandliars.com · July 30, 2026
Democrats post early fundraising edge in marquee 2026 Senate races - Politico
Democrats post early fundraising edge in marquee 2026 Senate racesPolitico Democrats continue to outraise Republicans in key Senate racesRoll Call 4Q25 Fundraising Reports: Massive $$$ Lead for Sen. Mark Warner; Republican Reps. Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, John…
Slashdot.org · February 1, 2026
Eileen Laubacher · CO Governor
'Who's laughing now?' Analyst sees GOP 'bottom' falling out as MAGA seats up for grabs
Republicans accustomed to safe seats are suddenly campaigning hard, and Democrats are chasing House districts that weren’t on their radar when the cycle began, Axios reported on Wednesday.Members like Reps. John McGuire (R-VA) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) weren’…
Raw Story · Today
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗