VotePredictor
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Virginia District 5 election, 2026

Tom Perriello vs. John McGuire. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
John McGuire favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.7
81%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+12.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging R+3.0
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.7.

Democratic

Tom Perriello

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Cooke Harvey · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government09-28R+5.0
Expedition Strategies (via Wikipedia)09-24R+1.0
Expedition Strategies (via Wikipedia)08-01R+3.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Tom PerrielloDEM$3.8M raised
Spent $3.1MCash on hand $684k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $13k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. VIRGINIA CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY FUND 2026$34k
  2. LURIA PERRIELLO VICTORY FUND$31k
  3. MCNEELY, PRENTICE$15k
  4. PERRIELLO, THOMAS$11k
  5. INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SHEET METAL, AIR, RAIL, AND TRANSPORTATION WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION LEAGUE$10k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.0M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$284k
  3. Education & Academia$125k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$116k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$94k

States

  1. VA$1.5M
  2. CA$290k
  3. NY$192k
  4. DC$148k
  5. MD$103k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
John McGuireREP$2.4M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $382kDebts $210k23% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MCGUIRE VICTORY FUND$257k
  2. ALLRED, DOUGLAS$43k
  3. LONG, CHARLES$35k
  4. AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUND$31k
  5. HARRINGTON, MICHAEL B$15k

Industries

  1. Retired$417k
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$83k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$78k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$26k
  5. Government Relations and Lobbying Services$17k

States

  1. VA$433k
  2. TX$139k
  3. CA$95k
  4. FL$73k
  5. NY$51k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Virginia's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2020Robert G. "Bob" Good(R)R+5.1
2018Denver Riggleman(R)R+6.5
2016Thomas A. Garrett(R)R+16.7
2010Robert Hurt(R)R+3.8
2008Tom S. Perriello(D)D+0.2
2006Virgil H. Goode(R)R+19.2

Candidate news

Read Perriello's quotes from his statement conceding race to McGuire

Here are all the quotes from Tom Perriello's press release, in which he congratulated Rep. John McGuire on his win in the 5th District of Virginia.

Richmond.com · Yesterday
Is It the Dems’ Big Night? Watch These Eight Races With Early Results.

One fact that’s generally true about elections is that if the wind is blowing one way in state A, it’s probably blowing in the same direction in states B, C, D, and so on. In 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in all seven swing states. They were all close…

The New Republic · November 3, 2026
Photos Show Kash Patel at Virginia Event After False Report He's in Russia

MS NOW has retracted a report that FBI Director Kash Patel had traveled to Russia for meetings with Russian security officials, after he was photographed at a law enforcement event in Virginia on Wednesday. Representative John McGuire, a Virginia Republican, …

Biztoc.com · October 14, 2026
Dems Might Just Have a Shot in This Very Unlikely District

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Virginia’s 5th congressional district is rural, evangelical, and red. But, in a t…

The New Republic · October 8, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: VA-4 · VA-6