Democratic
Beth Macy
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Virginia District 6 election, 2026
Beth Macy vs. Ben Cline. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ben Cline favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+23.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+24.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+30.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+18.6.
Republican
Ben Cline
Incumbent representative for VA-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Beth MacyDEM$2.9M raised
Spent $2.6MCash on hand $363k24% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$990k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$225k
- Legal & Professional Services$40k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$32k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$26k
States
- VA$1.4M
- NY$77k
- DC$49k
- PA$39k
- CA$38k
Ben ClineREP · incumbent$1.9M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $527k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$209k
- Retired$74k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$47k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$36k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$36k
States
- VA$729k
- DC$29k
- TX$21k
- CA$18k
- MD$17k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Ben Cline Earns Backing To Lead Largest Republican Caucus In Congress
By VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | September 18, 2026 The Republican Study Committee Executive Committee has endorsed Rep. Ben Cline, R-Va., to lead as the next RSC chairman for the 120th Congress, the Daily Signal has learned. “Earlier this week,…
Biztoc.com · September 22, 2026
Ben Cline Earns Backing to Lead Largest Republican Caucus in Congress
FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—The Republican Study Committee Executive Committee has endorsed Rep. Ben Cline, R-Va., to lead as the next RSC chairman for the 120th Congress, the Daily Signal has learned. “Earlier this week, the Executive Committee met with Repres…
Daily Signal · September 18, 2026
Jim Acosta spots Trump flags coming down in MAGA country: 'I'm feeling a vibe shift'
Former CNN anchor Jim Acosta says he's noticing fewer flags bearing President Donald Trump's name across rural Virginia, which he said signals a "vibe shift."During a Thursday episode of "The Jim Acosta Show," Acosta told Beth Macy, a Democratic congressional…
Raw Story · September 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗