VotePredictor
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Virginia District 7 election, 2026

Eugene Vindman vs. Doug Ollivant.

VotePredictor forecast
Eugene Vindman favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+9.0
93%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+3.0
2026 national environment
D+6.6
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Doug Ollivant

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Alaha Ahrar · Independent
  • Taner Demirci Lopez · Libertarian
  • Joshua Ertle · Independent
  • Randall Terry · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-7. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Virginia's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Eugene Simon Vindman(D)D+2.6
2022Abigail A. Spanberger(D)D+4.7
2020Abigail A. Spanberger(D)D+1.8
2018Abigail A. Spanberger(D)D+1.9

Candidate news

Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel

On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…

The New Republic · September 3, 2026
Wait, Are Dems Ahead in ... Arkansas?

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDo Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in Arkansas? One poll this week s…

The New Republic · August 21, 2026
Florida’s Democratic Senate Primary Isn’t What It Seems

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonFlorida’s Senate primary isn’t what it seemsOn the surface, Angie Nixon’s and Alex…

The New Republic · August 18, 2026
Eugene Vindman Walks Into A Friendly Meeting — Then His Own Side Turns On Him

Democrat Rep. Eugene Vindman walked into a meeting with local party activists expecting to talk about the midterms. He walked out after members of his own side confronted him, tempers exploded and the exchange turned profane. The August 11 meeting in King Geo…

Freerepublic.com · August 16, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: VA-6 · VA-8