Democratic
Don Beyer
Incumbent representative for VA-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Virginia District 8 election, 2026
Don Beyer vs. Tony Sabio. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Don Beyer favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+55.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+50.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tony Sabio
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tim Sharman · Independent
- Shelly Arnoldi · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Don BeyerDEM · incumbent$2.5M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $849k5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$478k
- Legal & Professional Services$127k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$121k
- Not Reported$91k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$80k
States
- VA$982k
- DC$208k
- CA$89k
- NY$58k
- MA$41k
Tim SharmanIND$45k raised
Spent $45kCash on hand $50Debts $45k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $45k
Tony SabioREP$44k raised
Spent $38kCash on hand $6k29% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$10k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
- Legal & Professional Services$313
- Homemaker$261
- Technology & Communications$261
States
- VA$20k
- NY$1k
- FL$417
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗