Democratic
Joy Powers
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Morgan Griffith favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+38.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+44.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Morgan Griffith
Incumbent representative for VA-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for VA-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VA-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Virginia's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Report from San Juan: New Bill Targets Citizenship Rights As Puerto Rico Marks 10 Years of PROMESA
After failing to overturn birthright citizenship at the Supreme Court, Republican legislators are turning to new tactics to disenfranchise people born on U.S. soil. Their latest targets are those born to noncitizen or permanent resident parents in U.S. territ…
Democracy Now! · July 24, 2026
Exclusive – Rep. Morgan Griffith: VA Gov. Spanberger Said She Had No Plans to Redistrict But It's the First Bill She Signed
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) is not a centrist and was not truthful about plans on redistricting, Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA) said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. The post Exclusive – Rep. Morgan Griffith: VA Gov. Spanberger Said She Had…
Breitbart News · May 1, 2026
Republicans Prove Irony Is Dead With Vote Condemning Fascism
American politics has come a long way since World War II.More than 250,000 Americans lost their lives fighting fascism in the European theater between 1942 and 1945, but decades later, that fervor to reject the destructive ideology seems to have died amongst …
The New Republic · November 18, 2025
Democrats Erupt as Mike Johnson Calls Recess Despite Looming Shutdown
House Democrats decried Republican leadership at a Tuesday protest against Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to keep the body out of session as a government shutdown looms.Democratic lawmakers decided to show up en masse to a pro forma session of the House on T…
The New Republic · September 30, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗