Democratic
Rebecca Cooke
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Derrick Van Orden favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+0.8
55%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+6.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Derrick Van Orden
Incumbent representative for WI-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Alexander Kent · Independent
- Rustin Provance · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
FM3 Research2026-06-25D+4.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WI-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
MAGA rep claims a gay president is 'more likely' to be Republican — for a wild reason
Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) said a gay president is more likely to be a Republican because Black voters are "not ready" to elect one.Van Orden made the remarks Thursday in an interview with TMZ outside the U.S. Capitol.Reporter Charlie Cotton asked the cong…
Raw Story · September 17, 2026
'I will punch someone in the face!' Republican goes berserk over Hegseth impeachment move
WASHINGTON — An embattled GOP congressman says he’s eager to brawl on Pete Hegseth’s behalf in the wake of his fellow Republican, Rep Thomas Massie (KY) dropping impeachment articles against the embattled defense secretary this week.“I will f------ punch some…
Raw Story · September 17, 2026
Trump ally in Wisconsin sticks close to the president as Democrats push to flip swing district
The way Derrick Van Orden sees it, any Republicans in the U.S. House who distance themselves from President Donald Trump in this year's midterm election aren...
Yahoo Entertainment · September 12, 2026
'Show up for work': House Republican snaps at Senate leadership over stalled bill
Farm state House Republicans facing the wrath of constituents over President Donald Trump's economic policies are hopping mad that they are taking the blame — prompting one to point the finger at his GOP counterparts in the Senate.That's according to a new an…
Raw Story · September 7, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗