VotePredictor
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Wisconsin District 3 election, 2026

Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Rebecca Cooke favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.8
56%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+7.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+3.0
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+1.7.

Democratic

Rebecca Cooke

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Alexander Kent · Independent
  • Rustin Provance · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
FM3 Research06-25D+4.0
Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-05-31D+4.0
Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-02-17D+1.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Rebecca CookeDEM$12.7M raised
Spent $12.2MCash on hand $447k29% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 2026$699k
  2. DEM RISING 2026$86k
  3. REBECCA COOKE VICTORY FUND$41k
  4. BLUE DOG VICTORY FUND$33k
  5. INVEST TO ELECT ILLINOIS BATTLEGROUND SUPPORT 2026$24k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$3.9M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$752k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$248k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$138k
  5. Education & Academia$136k

States

  1. WI$2.0M
  2. CA$1.2M
  3. NY$779k
  4. MA$527k
  5. IL$384k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Derrick Van OrdenREP · incumbent$9.1M raised
Spent $8.5MCash on hand $1.2MDebts $107k22% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. VAN ORDEN VICTORY$869k
  2. GROW THE MAJORITY$788k
  3. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$355k
  4. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$338k
  5. AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUND$27k

Industries

  1. Retired$2.3M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$163k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$72k
  4. Manufacturing & Industrial$33k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$24k

States

  1. WI$459k
  2. TX$383k
  3. FL$298k
  4. CA$293k
  5. VA$145k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WI-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: WI-2 · WI-4