VotePredictor
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Wisconsin District 4 election, 2026

Gwen Moore vs. Tim Rogers.

VotePredictor forecast
Gwen Moore favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+56.3
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+52.2
2026 national environment
D+6.3
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Republican

Tim Rogers

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Arthur Burks · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for WI-4. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WI-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: WI-3 · WI-5