Democratic
Brad Smith
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Wisconsin District 6 election, 2026
Brad Smith vs. Glenn Grothman. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Glenn Grothman favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+16.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+22.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+11.3.
Republican
Glenn Grothman
Incumbent representative for WI-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Elizabeth Fitzgibbon · Independent
- Michael Thurow · Independent
- Matthew Arndt · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Glenn GrothmanREP · incumbent$1.2M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $616kDebts $139k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$283k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$35k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$23k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$22k
- Wholesale & Distribution$14k
States
- WI$598k
- FL$30k
- IL$14k
- NV$12k
- DC$12k
Brad SmithDEM$322k raised
Spent $231kCash on hand $91k31% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$86k
- Retired$39k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Not Reported$6k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$5k
States
- WI$188k
- KY$3k
- IL$1k
- CA$750
- TX$750
Michael ThurowIND$195k raised
Spent $187kCash on hand $8k12% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$48k
- Retired$18k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$15k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$12k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$10k
States
- NY$62k
- WI$27k
- TX$22k
- CA$14k
- OK$7k
Elizabeth FitzgibbonIND$21k raised
Spent $17kCash on hand $4kDebts $2kSelf-funded $173
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$12k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$2k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$500
States
- VA$10k
- WI$5k
- FL$500
Matthew ArndtGRE$2k raised
Spent $500Cash on hand $2k32% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1k
States
- IL$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WI-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Wisconsin's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Republicans have introduced legislation that would raise a key salary threshold in the H-1B visa program from $60,000 to almost $140,000, a change that could significantly affect some companies that rely heavily on foreign workers. Republican Representative G…
Biztoc.com · October 16, 2026
How Not To Win Votes And Influence People
Matthew Arndt, a Green Party congressional candidate from Wisconsin, was arrested Thursday after being involved in a road rage incident. It started when Arndt caught up to an unnamed driver who had a "F Hamas" bumper sticker on his car. Arndt started driving…
Crooksandliars.com · October 10, 2026
Fretting MAGA rep whines Congress 'should do a little more' for the rich
A Republican lawmaker commented that Congress could make more of an effort to help out wealthy Americans, The Independent reported on Friday.Trump loyalist Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-WI) was speaking Thursday at a panel in Troy, Michigan, with other leaders when …
Raw Story · August 14, 2026
GOP Lawmaker Says Congress Needs To Do More For The Rich
Wisconsin Rep. Glenn Grothman apparently got lost and ended up at an Americans for Prosperity event in Michigan. Or maybe he heard they were giving away bratwursts. Either way, while there, someone made a mistake and handed Grothman a microphone. What happene…
Crooksandliars.com · August 14, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗