Actual result
R+27.5
Final polls said
R+26.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+26.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ciruli Associates | R+29.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+18.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 831 | R+26.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 1998-10-25 | 400 | R+29.0 | 2 |
| Ciruli Associates | 1998-10-21 | 400 | R+31.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 614 | R+18.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-11 | 804 | R+13.0 | 14 |
| Ciruli Associates | 1998-10-09 | 400 | R+21.0 | 6 |