Kansas Senate
Roger Marshall (R) is favored to win the 2026 Kansas Senate race — about a 73% chance, winning by about 2 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 13 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 13 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.2 — a 73% Republican win.
Latest news
Republicans Get New Midterm Warning Sign as Kansas Senate Race ShiftsElection forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted numerous U.S. Senate races in favor of Democrats on Wednesday, including Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall's seat in Kansas versus Democrat Adam Hamilton. The forecaster has moved the race from L…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
“Demonic Stuff”: Kansas GOP Accuses Democrat of Being a WitchWitch hunts are back en vogue with Kansas Republicans—literally.Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate in the Kansas gubernatorial race, accused his Democratic opponent Cindy Holscher of being an actual witch capable of “demonic” magic while speaking at the P…
The New Republic · Yesterday
'Shame on you!': Kansas GOP Senator on defense after former patient speaks outSen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who is also a physician, is on defense after his opponent Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) released an ad ...
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
EXCLUSIVE — KS Democrat Adam Hamilton Voted for Kamala Harris, Donated $500, Called Jan. 6 ‘Disqualifier’ for TrumpKansas Democrat Senate nominee Adam Hamilton voted for Kamala Harris for president in 2024 and contributed $500 to her campaign two days after former President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid, as Hamilton now campaigns against Republican Sen. Roger Marshal…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
GOP scrambling to save Trump 'yes-man' in ruby-red state: 'Bad candidate, bad campaign'National Republicans are spending heavily to protect a Republican incumbent in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.Polls show Sen. Roger Marshall (RKS) tied with Democrat Adam Hamilton, who leads the largest United Methodist …
Raw Story · Yesterday
- “Demonic Stuff”: Kansas GOP Accuses Democrat of Being a Witch
Witch hunts are back en vogue with Kansas Republicans—literally.Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate in the Kansas gubernatorial race, accused his Democratic opponent Cindy Holscher of being an actual witch capable of “demonic” magic while speaking at the P…
The New Republic · Yesterday - 'Shame on you!': Kansas GOP Senator on defense after former patient speaks out
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who is also a physician, is on defense after his opponent Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) released an ad ...
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - EXCLUSIVE — KS Democrat Adam Hamilton Voted for Kamala Harris, Donated $500, Called Jan. 6 ‘Disqualifier’ for Trump
Kansas Democrat Senate nominee Adam Hamilton voted for Kamala Harris for president in 2024 and contributed $500 to her campaign two days after former President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid, as Hamilton now campaigns against Republican Sen. Roger Marshal…
Breitbart News · Yesterday - GOP scrambling to save Trump 'yes-man' in ruby-red state: 'Bad candidate, bad campaign'
National Republicans are spending heavily to protect a Republican incumbent in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.Polls show Sen. Roger Marshall (RKS) tied with Democrat Adam Hamilton, who leads the largest United Methodist …
Raw Story · Yesterday 
Will Republicans or Democrats win the Senate? These key midterm races will decide.Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in November's election. But as important as the House of Representatives is, all signs point to the true drama of the midterms being in the battle for the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot thi…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 13, 2026
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The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Roger Marshall (R), with roughly a 73% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+2.2.
What do the polls say in the Kansas Senate race?
There are 13 polls of this race. The most recent, from InsiderAdvantage (2026-10-10), showed D+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+2.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Adam Hamilton is the Democratic candidate; Roger Marshall is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Kansas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Roger Marshall (R) is now favored at 73%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Kansas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.