Kansas Senate
Roger Marshall (R) is favored to win the 2026 Kansas Senate race — about a 76% chance, winning by about 7 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+7.1 — a 76% Republican win.
Latest news
Kansas pronoun bill sparks bipartisan concerns of turning ‘classrooms into courtrooms’by Anna Kaminski, Kansas Reflector February 19, 2025 TOPEKA — The Kansas Senate gave preliminary approval Wednesday to legislation that would ban school district employees from using names or pronouns other than a minor student’s corresponding biological se…
Raw Story · February 19, 2025
Kansas voters delivered a thundering midterm messageOne piece of advice for the Kansas GOP springs to mind after this year’s elections: Don’t underestimate women. Be it Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, the women who ran the campaign to preserve abortion rights, or Kansas voters who turned ou…
Raw Story · November 14, 2022
Republican caught 'covering his tracks' as life choice becomes opponent's attack adSen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) spent nearly four times more taxpayer money than previously thought on travel to an out-of-state home that is quickly becoming a re-election liability despite his efforts to sell it.A new Kansas City Star analysis found Marshall bil…
Raw Story · Today- UMC Pastor, Democrat candidate Adam Hamilton's 3 controversial Bible takes
United Methodist Church Pastor Adam Hamilton catapulted onto the national stage after his Democratic primary win last month in the race to represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate. Hamilton, who secured the Democratic nomination to run against incumbent Republican…
Freerepublic.com · August 21, 2026 - UMC Pastor, Democrat candidate Adam Hamilton's 3 controversial Bible takes
United Methodist Church Pastor Adam Hamilton catapulted onto the national stage after his Democratic primary win last month in the race to represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate. Hamilton, who secured the Democratic nomination to run against incumbent Republican…
Freerepublic.com · August 21, 2026 
GOP Leaders Roger Marshall And Ty Masterson Sound The Alarm About Drag QueensKansas GOP leaders Sen. Roger Marshall and Ty Masterson sound the alarm about the real menace in Kansas...drag queens. Forget tornadoes; the true threat to Kansas (and America) is...glitter and heels! Marshall and Masterson are showing voters how Republicans…
Crooksandliars.com · August 18, 2026
GOP Senators Launch Modern Inquisition Against Dem CandidateSen Ted Cruz and Sen. Roger Marshall called a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate a heretic. The candidate they attacked is a pastor in a United Methodist Church. Cruz and Marshall target Adam Hamilton, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Kansas. Media o…
Crooksandliars.com · August 17, 2026
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The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Roger Marshall (R), with roughly a 76% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+7.1.
What do the polls say in the Kansas Senate race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from Public Policy Polling[35][C] (2026-08-08), showed R+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+7.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Adam Hamilton is the Democratic candidate; Roger Marshall is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Kansas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Roger Marshall (R) is now favored at 76%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Kansas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.