Kansas Senate
Roger Marshall (R) is favored to win the 2026 Kansas Senate race — about a 73% chance, winning by about 2 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 13 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 13 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.2 — a 73% Republican win.
Latest news
GOP senator's woes deepen after baker accuses him of skipping a nearly $700 cookie billSen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is being accused by a local baker of skipping out on a bill for nearly $700 in cookies during his last election.The baker, Holly Thomas of Holly's Sweet Treats in Hutchinson, Kansas, posted her allegations on Facebook Thursday, comp…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Trump-backed candidate pulls ads off the air as polls show grim prospectsNorth Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley has taken his TV commercials off the air as national Republican groups pull back from the race, according to a report published in The News & Observer.A campaign source told McClatchy the break is brief and refl…
Raw Story · October 7, 2026
Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race: YouGov pollA potential Democratic win in Kansas could signal a significant political shift, challenging long-standing Republican dominance in the state. The post Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race: YouGov poll appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · October 6, 2026
Republicans are learning the downside of safe seatsIn seven primary and general elections for Congress, Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall has never won by less than 11 percentage points. He is now essentially tied in the polls with Democrat Adam Hamilton. And, facing the fight of his political life, Marshall is show…
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026
'I don't get it': GOP bewildered as Trump rallies in states that aren't even competitivePresident Donald Trump is opening the final weeks of the midterm campaign on defense.The 80-year-old president is rallying in deep-red states where Republican Senate candidates are suddenly struggling, and the strategy has some in his own party scratching the…
Raw Story · October 5, 2026
- GOP senator's woes deepen after baker accuses him of skipping a nearly $700 cookie bill
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is being accused by a local baker of skipping out on a bill for nearly $700 in cookies during his last election.The baker, Holly Thomas of Holly's Sweet Treats in Hutchinson, Kansas, posted her allegations on Facebook Thursday, comp…
Raw Story · Yesterday 
Vulnerable Kansas Republican Backs H-1B Program Even As His Party Abandons ItThe Trump administration has taken steps to crack down on H-1B visas, and some officials have called for scrapping the program altogether — but Sen. Roger Marshall said he’d defend such pathways for immigration.
HuffPost · Yesterday
Republican leadership of Senate health panel in doubtTight polls for Republicans are throwing future GOP leadership of the Senate health panel into question. With Sens. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, and Susan Collins, R-Maine, fighting difficult reelection battles, it’s unclear who will replace Louisiana Sen. Bill …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday- Trump-backed candidate pulls ads off the air as polls show grim prospects
North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley has taken his TV commercials off the air as national Republican groups pull back from the race, according to a report published in The News & Observer.A campaign source told McClatchy the break is brief and refl…
Raw Story · October 7, 2026 - Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race: YouGov poll
A potential Democratic win in Kansas could signal a significant political shift, challenging long-standing Republican dominance in the state. The post Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race: YouGov poll appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · October 6, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Roger Marshall (R), with roughly a 73% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+2.2.
What do the polls say in the Kansas Senate race?
There are 13 polls of this race. The most recent, from YouGov (2026-10-04), showed D+3.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+2.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Adam Hamilton is the Democratic candidate; Roger Marshall is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Kansas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Roger Marshall (R) is now favored at 73%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Kansas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.