Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+10.7 — a 76% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Kansas pronoun bill sparks bipartisan concerns of turning ‘classrooms into courtrooms’by Anna Kaminski, Kansas Reflector February 19, 2025 TOPEKA — The Kansas Senate gave preliminary approval Wednesday to legislation that would ban school district employees from using names or pronouns other than a minor student’s corresponding biological se…
Raw Story · February 19, 2025
Kansas voters delivered a thundering midterm messageOne piece of advice for the Kansas GOP springs to mind after this year’s elections: Don’t underestimate women. Be it Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, the women who ran the campaign to preserve abortion rights, or Kansas voters who turned ou…
Raw Story · November 14, 2022
Transcript: Trump Shows New Signs of Midterm Panic as Brutal Polls HitThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the July 2 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.This week, The…
The New Republic · July 2, 2026
Senate Republican vows to defy Trump appointmentTOPEKA — U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall vowed to be on the Kansas general election ballot in November and to decline administrative appointment from President Donald Trump during the next two years.Marshall, a Kansas Republican seeking reelection to a second term i…
Raw Story · June 29, 2026
Trump's bad habit is stressing out GOP senators: 'They're frustrated with him'President Donald Trump's slow pace in sending nominations to the Senate is exposing deepening friction with Republican senators, who say they are increasingly frustrated with the White House as the GOP's hold on the chamber beyond 2026 grows uncertain.More th…
Raw Story · June 29, 2026
If Sen. Roger Marshall Represents A Kansas IQ Test, They've Failed MiserablySenator Roger Marshall made an appearance on this Sunday's Meet the Press, and was asked by guest host Ryan Nobles about Trump refusing to sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passed the Republican voter suppression bill known as the SAVE Act. Marsha…
Crooksandliars.com · June 29, 2026
Senator reveals moment Trump's GOP lunch exploded: 'Not a good discussion'A Republican senator who attended Wednesday's closed-door lunch with President Donald Trump recalled the discussion that reportedly led to yelling.Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) told Semafor the exchange was memorable — and not in a good way."It was not a good di…
Raw Story · June 24, 2026
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Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2026-04-27 | 500 | R+4.0 |
| Tavern Research | 2026-01-28 | 1013 | R+8.0 |