Actual result
R+8.4
Final polls said
R+9.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciruli Associates | R+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | R+12.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+13.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+2.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-03 | 3697 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2000-11-02 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2000-10-29 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2000-10-25 | 400 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-23 | 500 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2000-10-01 | 491 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2000-09-27 | 500 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-13 | 702 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2000-09-13 | 600 | R+2.0 | 6 |