Nevada Governor
Joe Lombardo (R) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Nevada Governor race — about a 66% chance, winning by about 7 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+6.6 — a 66% Republican win.
Latest news
Another attempt to hold fake electors accountable falls apart in courtNevada's yearslong criminal case against six Republicans accused of submitting a fake electoral certificate for President Trump was tossed out Thursday, marking the fourth such prosecution nationwide to fall apart.A judge dismissed the case against the group,…
Raw Story · August 14, 2026
Protecting Workers From AI Is Easier Said Than DoneEditor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 7, 2026- Exclusive: Wes Moore Bets on Bi-Partisanship in a Divisive Age
Is bipartisanship a lost art, or have we simply grown too disillusioned with establishment leaders to recognize a bridge-builder when we see one? Near sacred ground in Oklahoma City — blocks from the site of the deadliest act of domestic terrorism on Ameri…
The Root · August 6, 2026 
Nevada gubernatorial race shapes up as bellwether for GOP heading into 2028Nevada’s primaries have resulted in a face-off between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Abcnews.com · June 10, 2026- Nevada Attorney General Wins Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Aaron Ford, Nevada’s attorney general, has prevailed over a crowded field of Democrats to face off against first-term Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, in a race that will test voters’ willingness to back President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in the mid…
Financial Post · June 10, 2026
Fast-growing wildfire threatens thousands of homes in NevadaA fast-growing wildfire in Nevada has grown to 10,000 acres since it began burning just outside Reno on Saturday, officials said. The Hawk Fire remained uncontained as of Sunday and forced 14,000 homes to be evacuated. Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of em…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Nevada brush fire spreads to 10,500 acres as governor declares state of emergencyNevada Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of emergency as the Hawk Fire exploded across 10,500 acres, threatening 1,000 homes outside of Reno.
Fox News · Yesterday
Hawk Fire Evacuation Map as Blaze Spreads Over 10,000 AcresNevada Governor Joe Lombardo has declared a state of emergency in Washoe County as firefighters battle the rapidly growing Hawk Fire burning northwest of Reno near Verdi and the Somersett community. According to local news reports, the Hawk Fire was first rep…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
State of emergency declared as massive Hawk Fire erupts across 10,000 acres in Nevada with thouands evacauting their homesNevada Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of emergency in Washoe County because of the Hawk Fire, which he said was 'spreading quickly and threatening homes and structures.'
Dailymail.com · Yesterday
Diddy's Bodyguard, Ex-Mayor of Vegas and Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo Among High-Profile Witnesses Set to Testify at Tupac Murder TrialDuane 'Keefe D' Davis has been charged with arranging the Las Vegas drive-by shooting that took the life of the rap legend nearly 30 years ago.
Radaronline.com · August 7, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Nevada Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Joe Lombardo (R), with roughly a 66% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+6.6.
What do the polls say in the Nevada Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from Global Strategy Group (2026-05-11), showed R+3.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+6.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Nevada Governor race?
Aaron Ford is the Democratic candidate; Joe Lombardo is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Nevada Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Nevada Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Joe Lombardo's (R) lead has widened to 66%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Nevada Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.