Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+6.6 — a 66% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Nevada gubernatorial race shapes up as bellwether for GOP heading into 2028Nevada’s primaries have resulted in a face-off between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Abcnews.com · June 10, 2026- Nevada Attorney General Wins Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Aaron Ford, Nevada’s attorney general, has prevailed over a crowded field of Democrats to face off against first-term Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, in a race that will test voters’ willingness to back President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in the mid…
Financial Post · June 10, 2026 - Live Results: Nevada midterm primaries - PBS
Live Results: Nevada midterm primariesPBS Election Day live updates: SOS erroneously releases election resultsThe Nevada Independent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo to face off against Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada’s race for governorNBC News Nevada GOP Gov. Joe…
Slashdot.org · June 10, 2026 
In Nevada, Trump's policies are making things tough for Republican Gov. Joe LombardoIn one of the most competitive races for governor this year, Nevada Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford will challenge Republican Gov. Joe Lomardo for his office in November.
NPR · June 10, 2026
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo to face off against Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada’s race for governorNevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democrat Aaron Ford have won their primaries, NBC News projects, officially setting up what’s expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests in the fall
NBC News · June 10, 2026
GOP governor gets bad news as his pet initiative fails to make the ballotNevada Gov. Joe Lombardo admitted some bad news on Friday — his pet referendum will not make it onto the ballot.According to The Nevada Independent, Lombardo stated on social media that his ballot question restricting participation of transgender athletes in …
Raw Story · June 19, 2026- Nevada gubernatorial race shapes up as bellwether for GOP heading into 2028
Nevada’s primaries have resulted in a face-off between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Abcnews.com · June 10, 2026 - In Nevada, Trump’s policies are making things tough for Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo - NPR
In Nevada, Trump’s policies are making things tough for Republican Gov. Joe LombardoNPR Election Day live updates: SOS erroneously releases election resultsThe Nevada Independent Nevada Primary Results 2026: House and GovernorAP News Live Results: Nevada midt…
Slashdot.org · June 10, 2026 - Nevada Attorney General Wins Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Aaron Ford, Nevada’s attorney general, has prevailed over a crowded field of Democrats to face off against first-term Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, in a race that will test voters’ willingness to back President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in the mid…
Financial Post · June 10, 2026 - Live Results: Nevada midterm primaries - PBS
Live Results: Nevada midterm primariesPBS Election Day live updates: SOS erroneously releases election resultsThe Nevada Independent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo to face off against Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada’s race for governorNBC News Nevada GOP Gov. Joe…
Slashdot.org · June 10, 2026
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Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-05-11 | 700 | R+3.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-03-13 | 845 | R+1.0 |
| Hart Research Associates | 2026-02-17 | 800 | R+3.0 |