Nevada Governor
Joe Lombardo (R) is favored to win the 2026 Nevada Governor race — about a 76% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.4 — a 76% Republican win.
Latest news
'Worried' Trump just revealed what is 'getting to him' by embracing tool he hates: MS NOWPresident Donald Trump has spent years attacking mail-in voting. According to a panel on MS NOW, his sudden turnaround shows how worried he is about the midterms.On "The Weekend" Sunday, the panel pointed to a Truth Social post Trump wrote Friday."Republicans…
Raw Story · October 4, 2026
'Startling admission' flagged in new Trump interview as Dem vows to 'meet' him in courtAsked whether he plans to declare a state of emergency before the midterms, President Donald Trump wouldn't rule it out. On MS NOW, the remark was called a "startling admission."The exchange came in Trump's recent interview with Time magazine, which "The Week…
Raw Story · October 3, 2026
'Meet me in court': Why Nevada is ready to fight against Trump's midterm 'shenanigans'Nevada Secretary of State and Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee, Aaron Ford joins The Weekend to discuss moves from Trump ...
Biztoc.com · October 3, 2026
GOP insiders fear purple state loss would signal they 'lost pretty much everywhere else'Republicans see governor's race in a western swing state as a warning light for the whole party.Politico Playbook reported Wednesday that some Republicans said a loss by Gov. Joe Lombardo in Nevada would probably mean the GOP has lost "pretty much everywhere …
Raw Story · September 30, 2026- ‘Word salad’ Kamala Harris hits midterm campaign trail — but some Dems are begging ex-VP to just stay home
She’s back on the campaign trail – and some Democrats wish she’d go back to Brentwood. Former Vice President Kamala Harris hasn’t yet ditched her reputation for clumsy answers while stumping for controversial US Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan thi…
Freerepublic.com · September 26, 2026
Four Years After Dobbs, Abortion Is Back on the Ballot in a Big WayFour years after the Supreme Court overturned the federal right to an abortion with the Dobbs decision, access to the procedure remains a critical matter for voters across the country. Abortion rights advocates are hoping that abortion-related ballot measures…
The New Republic · October 5, 2026- GOP insiders fear purple state loss would signal they 'lost pretty much everywhere else'
Republicans see governor's race in a western swing state as a warning light for the whole party.Politico Playbook reported Wednesday that some Republicans said a loss by Gov. Joe Lombardo in Nevada would probably mean the GOP has lost "pretty much everywhere …
Raw Story · September 30, 2026 
Nevada governor sets guardrails on data centersNevada Governor Joe Lombardo signed an executive order on Friday imposing guardrails on data centers, which will bar them from seeking new state tax breaks and require those receiving incentives to co...
Biztoc.com · September 18, 2026
Fast-growing wildfire threatens thousands of homes in NevadaA fast-growing wildfire in Nevada has grown to 10,000 acres since it began burning just outside Reno on Saturday, officials said. The Hawk Fire remained uncontained as of Sunday and forced 14,000 homes to be evacuated. Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of em…
Biztoc.com · August 23, 2026
Nevada brush fire spreads to 10,500 acres as governor declares state of emergencyNevada Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of emergency as the Hawk Fire exploded across 10,500 acres, threatening 1,000 homes outside of Reno.
Fox News · August 23, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Nevada Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Joe Lombardo (R), with roughly a 76% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+3.4.
What do the polls say in the Nevada Governor race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-02), showed D+0.6. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+3.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Nevada Governor race?
Aaron Ford is the Democratic candidate; Joe Lombardo is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Nevada Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Nevada Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Joe Lombardo's (R) lead has widened to 76%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Nevada Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.