Actual result
R+4.9
Final polls said
R+0.6
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hill Research Consultants | R+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | R+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ciruli Associates | D+4.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | D+4.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 507 | D+5.0 | 10 |
| Tarrance Group | 2002-11-03 | 400 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 679 | D+7.0 | 12 |
| Gallup | 2002-11-01 | 619 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-01 | 739 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Hill Research Consultants | 2002-11-01 | 400 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-31 | 679 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-31 | 400 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-30 | 500 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-27 | 400 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-26 | 500 | EVEN | 5 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-23 | 500 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-23 | 400 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 739 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-11 | 500 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 500 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-08 | 679 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-06 | 679 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-17 | 500 | EVEN | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-09-07 | 602 | R+2.0 | 3 |