Actual result
R+11.9
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-26 | 400 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-05 | 400 | R+10.0 | 2 |