Iowa Senate
Ashley Hinson (R) is a slight favorite to win the 2026 Iowa Senate race — about a 60% chance, winning by less than a point in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 25 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 25 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.9 — a 60% Republican win.
Latest news
Josh Turek Is Winning Over Iowa Trump Voters, Poll FindsA new poll shows that Democrat Josh Turek is winning over people who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election in the race to be Iowa's next U.S. senator. The Hawkeye State is among this year's most competitive Senate races, as Turek …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Josh Turek Just Ahead in Iowa Senate RaceA new YouGov poll in Iowa finds Josh Turek (D) leading Ashley Hinson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%. Iowa Senate Race Josh Turek (D) 47% Ashley Hinson (R) 46% YouGov poll · likely voters · ±3.1% The same poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Za…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
Iowa Dem Senate candidate says he's too busy campaigning to attend all state House votesDemocratic Iowa State Rep. Josh Turek defended missing nearly 58% of legislature votes by citing campaign town halls across all 99 counties.
Fox News · Yesterday
Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek Polls Ahead of Iowa Senate DebateRepublican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are set to face off in their second debate Tuesday night, just three weeks ahead of the midterm elections that will determine Iowa's next U.S. senator. The Hawkeye Sta…
Biztoc.com · October 13, 2026
White House press secretary's debut draws criticism but Trump says she was 'very good'Katie Zacharia responded after criticism of her first White House press briefing on Tuesday, telling Newsweek via email that “I am grateful to serve President Trump as Press Secretary, and I will diligently and effectively amplify his successful agenda.”Durin…
Newsweek · October 13, 2026
- Josh Turek Is Winning Over Iowa Trump Voters, Poll Finds
A new poll shows that Democrat Josh Turek is winning over people who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election in the race to be Iowa's next U.S. senator. The Hawkeye State is among this year's most competitive Senate races, as Turek …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday 
Ashley Hinson Touts Win for Iowa Farmers as GOP Senate Seat Under ThreatIowa Representative Ashley Hinson has praised a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revision to a renewable fuel standard rule that pledges to "increase target markets for American farmers" in Iowa, just three weeks before the midterm election, whi…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday- Josh Turek Just Ahead in Iowa Senate Race
A new YouGov poll in Iowa finds Josh Turek (D) leading Ashley Hinson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%. Iowa Senate Race Josh Turek (D) 47% Ashley Hinson (R) 46% YouGov poll · likely voters · ±3.1% The same poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Za…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday 
Trump-Backed Iowa Senate Candidate Slapped With Rough Community Note After Ad Claims She Voted to Release Epstein FilesAn ad shared on social media by Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson was slapped with a community note about her vote for the release of the Epstein files. The post Trump-Backed Iowa Senate Candidate Slapped With Rough Community Note After Ad Claims She Voted …
Mediaite · Yesterday- Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek Polls Ahead of Iowa Senate Debate
Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are set to face off in their second debate Tuesday night, just three weeks ahead of the midterm elections that will determine Iowa's next U.S. senator. The Hawkeye Sta…
Biztoc.com · October 13, 2026
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The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ashley Hinson (R), with roughly a 60% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.9.
What do the polls say in the Iowa Senate race?
There are 25 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-06), showed D+0.8. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
Josh Turek is the Democratic candidate; Ashley Hinson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Iowa Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Ashley Hinson (R) is now favored at 60%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Iowa Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.