Iowa Senate
Ashley Hinson (R) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Iowa Senate race — about a 65% chance, winning by about 4 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 23 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 23 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.8 — a 65% Republican win.
Latest news
Why the GOP’s Pushing a “Satanic Wedding” Story in This RaceYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be Dems’ best chance to flip a House seat in IowaSarah Trone Garriott m…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026
Fox Hits Trump with Crushing Polls—and Wrecks Fox’s Own Pro-Trump SpinFox News has some very bad news for Fox News. You’ve probably noticed that Fox pumps out enormous amounts of propaganda designed to smear the Democratic Party as wildly extreme and irredeemably crazy. Leading Fox personalities routinely depict the party as ho…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
Democrat Josh Turek Flip-Flops on Welfare for IllegalsIowa Democrat Senate nominee Josh Turek is trying to flip-flop on his past support for taxpayer-funded welfare for illegal immigrants. The post Democrat Josh Turek Flip-Flops on Welfare for Illegals appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · August 14, 2026
Transcript: Fox Hits Trump with Brutal Polls as Aides Feed Him HopiumThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 14 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.After we recorded, new Fox polls found Dems up eight in Ohio and down four in Michigan.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Repub…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
MAGA candidate's 'unexplained' attendance issues led to 200 missed votes: reportA MAGA lawmaker who is running for a Senate seat in Iowa missed nearly 200 votes during her time in Congress on topics ranging from protecting kids to reducing crime and domestic violence, according to a new report. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has been absent f…
Raw Story · August 13, 2026
- Why the GOP’s Pushing a “Satanic Wedding” Story in This Race
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be Dems’ best chance to flip a House seat in IowaSarah Trone Garriott m…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026 - Fox Hits Trump with Crushing Polls—and Wrecks Fox’s Own Pro-Trump Spin
Fox News has some very bad news for Fox News. You’ve probably noticed that Fox pumps out enormous amounts of propaganda designed to smear the Democratic Party as wildly extreme and irredeemably crazy. Leading Fox personalities routinely depict the party as ho…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026 - Transcript: Fox Hits Trump with Brutal Polls as Aides Feed Him Hopium
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 14 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.After we recorded, new Fox polls found Dems up eight in Ohio and down four in Michigan.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Repub…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026 
We Asked This Journalist-Turned-Congresswoman Why Voters Should Give Her Senate PromotionRep. Ashley Hinson spoke about her state’s “common sense values” as well as her legislative record on Communist China and material health.
The Daily Caller · August 13, 2026- MAGA candidate's 'unexplained' attendance issues led to 200 missed votes: report
A MAGA lawmaker who is running for a Senate seat in Iowa missed nearly 200 votes during her time in Congress on topics ranging from protecting kids to reducing crime and domestic violence, according to a new report. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has been absent f…
Raw Story · August 13, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ashley Hinson (R), with roughly a 65% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+3.8.
What do the polls say in the Iowa Senate race?
There are 23 polls of this race. The most recent, from Race to the WH[98] (2026-08-06), showed R+1.9. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+3.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
Josh Turek is the Democratic candidate; Ashley Hinson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Iowa Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Ashley Hinson (R) is now favored at 65%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Iowa Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.