Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 14 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.5 — a 64% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Dem Senate hopeful pocketed massive taxpayer-funded cash while skipping hundreds of votesJosh Turek, Paralympic gold medalist and Iowa Senate candidate, allegedly collected over $20,000 in per diem while missing 58.7% of his 2026 votes.
Fox News · July 8, 2026
‘Moderate’ Iowa Democrat Josh Turek Voted Against Bills Targeting DEI Programs in SchoolsIowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek, who has presented himself as a common-sense lawmaker capable of appealing across party lines, voted against three measures restricting DEI offices, required coursework, and funding in the state’s public education sys…
Breitbart News · July 8, 2026
Republicans now 'sincerely worried' about Senate seat in a state Trump won by 13 pointsIowa was supposed to be safe Republican ground, but a closely watched Iowa political analyst said Monday the GOP is worried about holding a Senate seat in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points just two years ago.Appearing on Democratic strategis…
Raw Story · July 6, 2026
Josh Turek: ‘Iowans are ready for change and the winds of change are here’Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, Josh Turek, joins MS NOW's Lawrence O'Donnell to discuss what he's hearing from ...
Biztoc.com · July 3, 2026- Democrat Josh Turek leading by 4 points in Iowa Senate race pollingYahoo Entertainment · July 2, 2026
Republicans now 'sincerely worried' about Senate seat in a state Trump won by 13 pointsIowa was supposed to be safe Republican ground, but a closely watched Iowa political analyst said Monday the GOP is worried about holding a Senate seat in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points just two years ago.Appearing on Democratic strategis…
Raw Story · July 6, 2026
Fox News Poll: A close Senate contest is brewing in IowaDemocrat Josh Turek holds a 4-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in the 2026 Iowa Senate race as Donald Trump favorability drops statewide.
Fox News · July 1, 2026
On Dobbs Anniversary, Graham Platner Highlights ‘Stirring Defense’ of Kavanaugh by Susan CollinsFresh off an endorsement from the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner is continuing to hammer his Republican opponent, Sen. Susan Collins, over her vote to confirm US Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which helped s…
Common Dreams · June 24, 2026
Josh Turek Edges Out GOP's Ashley Hinson in Internal Iowa Senate PollDemocrat Josh Turek narrowly edged out Republican Ashley Hinson in a new internal poll of the Iowa Senate race released on Monday. Iowa, once a swing state that backed former President Barack Obama in both of his campaign runs, emerged as a Republican strongh…
Biztoc.com · June 22, 2026
Turek leads Hinson in Iowa Senate poll of likely general election votersIowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek has a narrow lead over GOP rival Ashley Hinson in a new internal poll of likely general-election voters. Turek leads Hinson 47 percent to 45 percent in the poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group from June 8-11 amon…
Biztoc.com · June 22, 2026
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Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[88] | 2026-07-02 | — | R+0.9 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-27 | 1003 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[87] | 2026-06-27 | 600 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[90] | 2026-06-27 | 600 | R+2.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | 600 | R+2.0 |
| Cygnal | 2026-06-19 | 600 | R+1.8 |
| Global Strategy Group[92][B] | 2026-06-11 | 1000 | D+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group[89][B] | 2026-06-11 | 1000 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-06-04 | 557 | EVEN |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 377 | D+1.0 |
| GQR[92][B] | 2026-03-16 | 1200 | R+4.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-03-16 | 1200 | R+4.0 |
| GQR[95][B] | 2026-03-16 | 1200 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-01-11 | 1108 | R+3.0 |