Iowa Senate
Ashley Hinson (R) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Iowa Senate race — about a 61% chance, winning by about 1 point in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 25 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 25 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+1.0 — a 61% Republican win.
Latest news
Ashley Hinson's Trump Strategy Might Be Working in IowaIowa Republican Senate hopeful Ashley Hinson has a 2-point lead over Democrat rival Josh Turek according to the latest Emerson College survey, which puts her at 47 percent of the vote against 45 percent. Democrats hope to flip both chambers of Congress in Nov…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Iowa Debate: Ashley Hinson Demands Josh Turek Refund $20K Per Diem Payout: ‘You Stole from Taxpayers’Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) criticized Obama-endorsed Democrat U.S. Senate nominee Josh Turek for taking taxpayer-funded per diem payments while missing a majority of Iowa House votes this year, repeatedly targeting his attendance record during their Senate deb…
Breitbart News · Yesterday- Obama marvels at Democrats' Senate chances
Former president Barack Obama expressed surprise at Democrats' expanding midterm map at a private fundraiser Wednesday night, but warned donors not to get complacent about the party's chances, according to excerpts provided to The Washington Post."There are s…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 8, 2026 
'Complete lie': Republicans' latest attack ads torn to shreds by fact-checkerA CNN fact-check of GOP ads in competitive Senate races across four states found that attacks accusing Democrats of supporting gender surgeries for minors rely on misleading claims.In Ohio, Senate Leadership Fund spots targeting Sherrod Brown feature Soren Al…
Raw Story · October 8, 2026
Josh Turek nears historic win in Iowa Senate race amid GOP challengesA Democratic win in Iowa's Senate race could signal a shift in political dynamics, challenging the state's Republican dominance. The post Josh Turek nears historic win in Iowa Senate race amid GOP challenges appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · October 8, 2026
Ashley Hinson criticized for vote increasing Iowans’ health insurance costsHinson's vote may sway voter sentiment, potentially boosting Democratic chances in a tight Iowa Senate race amid healthcare concerns. The post Ashley Hinson criticized for vote increasing Iowans’ health insurance costs appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · Yesterday- Ashley Hinson's Trump Strategy Might Be Working in Iowa
Iowa Republican Senate hopeful Ashley Hinson has a 2-point lead over Democrat rival Josh Turek according to the latest Emerson College survey, which puts her at 47 percent of the vote against 45 percent. Democrats hope to flip both chambers of Congress in Nov…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday 
'They see the writing on the wall': Trump voters urging GOP candidates to flee presidentWith the midterms 25 days away, one in four Trump voters say Republican candidates should break with the president to win in November, according to the latest POLITICO Poll, conducted by the independent firm PF Global.The findings underscore how even some Tru…
Raw Story · Yesterday- Iowa Debate: Ashley Hinson Demands Josh Turek Refund $20K Per Diem Payout: ‘You Stole from Taxpayers’
Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) criticized Obama-endorsed Democrat U.S. Senate nominee Josh Turek for taking taxpayer-funded per diem payments while missing a majority of Iowa House votes this year, repeatedly targeting his attendance record during their Senate deb…
Breitbart News · Yesterday 
Trump-backed Senate hopeful grilled over her husband's 'shadow lobbyist' ties and $50,000 taxpayer-dollar grab shaking up nail-biter raceIowa Republican Senate candidate and current Congresswoman Ashley Hinson denied that her husband was a 'shadow lobbyist' during a Wednesday debate.
Dailymail.com · October 8, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ashley Hinson (R), with roughly a 61% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+1.0.
What do the polls say in the Iowa Senate race?
There are 25 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-06), showed D+0.8. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+1.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
Josh Turek is the Democratic candidate; Ashley Hinson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Iowa Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Ashley Hinson (R) is now favored at 61%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Iowa Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.