VotePredictor
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Iowa Senate

Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R)

Forecast — win probability
Josh Turek (D)
36%
(R) Ashley Hinson
64%
Toss-up · model margin R+3.5

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 14 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.5 — a 64% Republican win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul64% R36% D
Democrats 36% Republicans 64%

Latest news

Josh Turek (D)
Ashley Hinson (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (14)

PollsterDatenPoll
Race to the WH[88]2026-07-02R+0.9
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2026-06-271003D+4.0
New York Times/Siena University[87]2026-06-27600R+2.0
New York Times/Siena University[90]2026-06-27600R+2.0
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-27600R+2.0
Cygnal2026-06-19600R+1.8
Global Strategy Group[92][B]2026-06-111000D+2.0
Global Strategy Group[89][B]2026-06-111000D+2.0
Public Policy Polling2026-06-04557EVEN
Echelon Insights2026-04-09377D+1.0
GQR[92][B]2026-03-161200R+4.0
GBAO2026-03-161200R+4.0
GQR[95][B]2026-03-161200R+4.0
Change Research2026-01-111108R+3.0