Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.8 — a 60% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Deep-blue Oregon is on track to elect REPUBLICAN governor, claims shock new poll that puts GOP candidate well ahead of Democrat incumbentIncumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is locked in a head to head with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan.
Dailymail.com · Today
DOJ Says ‘Discriminatory and Obstructionist Policies’ in These Blue States Endanger ICE AgentsFour blue states are putting federal agents in danger in an effort to hinder immigration enforcement, a Justice Department action contends. On Monday, days after a Justice Department lawsuit, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat, ordered state agencies to conti…
Daily Signal · June 1, 2026- Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematch - OregonLive.com
Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematchOregonLive.com Drazan declares victory in Oregon Republican governor primaryStatesman Journal Christine Drazan headed for a rematch against Tina Kotek in November election for Orego…
Slashdot.org · May 20, 2026 
Christine Drazan wins Oregon GOP primary for governor, setting up rematch with Democratic Gov. Tina KotekNBC News projects Drazan, a state senator, emerged from a 14-candidate field to advance to the general election in the blue state.
NBC News · May 20, 2026
Live Results: Oregon midterm state and congressional primariesOregon's Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and the nearly two dozen challengers hoping to defeat her are among the candidates who will seek their parties' nominations for state and federal offices in Tuesday's primary.
PBS · May 19, 2026
- Deep-blue Oregon is on track to elect REPUBLICAN governor, claims shock new poll that puts GOP candidate well ahead of Democrat incumbent
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is locked in a head to head with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan.
Dailymail.com · Today - Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematch - OregonLive.com
Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematchOregonLive.com Drazan declares victory in Oregon Republican governor primaryStatesman Journal Christine Drazan headed for a rematch against Tina Kotek in November election for Orego…
Slashdot.org · May 20, 2026 - Christine Drazan wins Oregon GOP primary for governor, setting up rematch with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek
NBC News projects Drazan, a state senator, emerged from a 14-candidate field to advance to the general election in the blue state.
NBC News · May 20, 2026 
Good Morning, News: Trump Administration Appeals Portland Tear Gas Ban, Oregon's Republican Legislators Aren't Showing up for Work, and National Counterterrorism Center Director Resigns Over Iran Warby Taylor Griggs The Mercury provides news and fun every single day—but your help is essential. If you believe Portland benefits from smart, local journalism and arts coverage, please consider making a small monthly contribution, because without you, t…
The Portland Mercury · March 17, 2026
Good Morning, News: Info on ICE in Oregon, Bovino Backlash (and Other Chaos), and TikTok is Even Worse Nowby Taylor Griggs The Mercury provides news and fun every single day—but your help is essential. If you believe Portland benefits from smart, local journalism and arts coverage, please consider making a small monthly contribution, because without you, t…
The Portland Mercury · January 27, 2026
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Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies[39][B] | 2026-06-24 | 600 | R+4.0 |
| Hoffman Research Group[40][C] | 2026-05-12 | 603 | EVEN |
| FM3 Research | 2026-02-04 | 1065 | D+5.0 |