Oregon Governor
The 2026 Oregon Governor race is essentially a toss-up: Tina Kotek (D) holds a narrow 53% edge, projected to win by about 1 point. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+1.1 — a 53% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Did Oregon governor sign bill removing math, literacy requirements for graduation to help students of color?Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek signed a bill to remove math, reading and writing requirements for graduation to help students of color.
Snopes.com · July 10, 2026
Deep-blue Oregon is on track to elect REPUBLICAN governor, claims shock new poll that puts GOP candidate well ahead of Democrat incumbentIncumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is locked in a head to head with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan.
Dailymail.com · July 10, 2026
DOJ Says ‘Discriminatory and Obstructionist Policies’ in These Blue States Endanger ICE AgentsFour blue states are putting federal agents in danger in an effort to hinder immigration enforcement, a Justice Department action contends. On Monday, days after a Justice Department lawsuit, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat, ordered state agencies to conti…
Daily Signal · June 1, 2026- Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematch - OregonLive.com
Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematchOregonLive.com Drazan declares victory in Oregon Republican governor primaryStatesman Journal Christine Drazan headed for a rematch against Tina Kotek in November election for Orego…
Slashdot.org · May 20, 2026 
Christine Drazan wins Oregon GOP primary for governor, setting up rematch with Democratic Gov. Tina KotekNBC News projects Drazan, a state senator, emerged from a 14-candidate field to advance to the general election in the blue state.
NBC News · May 20, 2026
- Deep-blue Oregon is on track to elect REPUBLICAN governor, claims shock new poll that puts GOP candidate well ahead of Democrat incumbent
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is locked in a head to head with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan.
Dailymail.com · July 10, 2026 - Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematch - OregonLive.com
Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematchOregonLive.com Drazan declares victory in Oregon Republican governor primaryStatesman Journal Christine Drazan headed for a rematch against Tina Kotek in November election for Orego…
Slashdot.org · May 20, 2026 - Christine Drazan wins Oregon GOP primary for governor, setting up rematch with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek
NBC News projects Drazan, a state senator, emerged from a 14-candidate field to advance to the general election in the blue state.
NBC News · May 20, 2026 
Good Morning, News: Trump Administration Appeals Portland Tear Gas Ban, Oregon's Republican Legislators Aren't Showing up for Work, and National Counterterrorism Center Director Resigns Over Iran Warby Taylor Griggs The Mercury provides news and fun every single day—but your help is essential. If you believe Portland benefits from smart, local journalism and arts coverage, please consider making a small monthly contribution, because without you, t…
The Portland Mercury · March 17, 2026
Good Morning, News: Info on ICE in Oregon, Bovino Backlash (and Other Chaos), and TikTok is Even Worse Nowby Taylor Griggs The Mercury provides news and fun every single day—but your help is essential. If you believe Portland benefits from smart, local journalism and arts coverage, please consider making a small monthly contribution, because without you, t…
The Portland Mercury · January 27, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Oregon Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Tina Kotek (D), with roughly a 53% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+1.1. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Oregon Governor race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Hoffman Research Group (2026-05-12), showed EVEN. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+1.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Oregon Governor race?
Tina Kotek is the Democratic candidate; Christine Drazan is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Oregon Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Oregon Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.