Oregon Governor
Tina Kotek (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Oregon Governor race — about a 61% chance, winning by about 1 point in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+1.3 — a 61% Democratic win.
Latest news
GOP May Win Governor Race in Democrat State for First Time in 44 Years—PollRepublican state Senator Christine Drazan narrowly leads Democratic Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll, putting the GOP within reach of a seat it hasn't won since 1982. The survey of 915 likely voters, conducted by DHM…
Biztoc.com · October 1, 2026
Tight Race for Oregon GovernorA new Oregon Public Broadcasting poll in Oregon finds Christine Drazan (R) leading Tina Kotek (D) in the governor’s race, 47% to 46%, with Brett Smith at 3%. Oregon Governor’s Race Christine Drazan (R) 47% Tina Kotek (D) 46% Oregon Public Broadcasting pol…
Politicalwire.com · September 30, 2026- OREGON ‘She has a chance’: Drazan holds slight lead over Kotek in governor’s race, poll shows
“PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — A new poll in the Oregon governor’s race shows Republican Christine Drazan with a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek. It’s the latest indication that the governor’s race is essentially neck and neck, with less than two m…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2026 
Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes First Win Since 1982Republican Christine Drazan holds a slight lead over Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon’s governor’s race as the GOP seeks its first gubernatorial victory in the state since 1982. The post Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes Fir…
Breitbart News · September 16, 2026
Did Oregon governor sign bill removing math, literacy requirements for graduation to help students of color?Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek signed a bill to remove math, reading and writing requirements for graduation to help students of color.
Snopes.com · July 10, 2026
- GOP May Win Governor Race in Democrat State for First Time in 44 Years—Poll
Republican state Senator Christine Drazan narrowly leads Democratic Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll, putting the GOP within reach of a seat it hasn't won since 1982. The survey of 915 likely voters, conducted by DHM…
Biztoc.com · October 1, 2026 - Tight Race for Oregon Governor
A new Oregon Public Broadcasting poll in Oregon finds Christine Drazan (R) leading Tina Kotek (D) in the governor’s race, 47% to 46%, with Brett Smith at 3%. Oregon Governor’s Race Christine Drazan (R) 47% Tina Kotek (D) 46% Oregon Public Broadcasting pol…
Politicalwire.com · September 30, 2026 - OREGON ‘She has a chance’: Drazan holds slight lead over Kotek in governor’s race, poll shows
“PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — A new poll in the Oregon governor’s race shows Republican Christine Drazan with a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek. It’s the latest indication that the governor’s race is essentially neck and neck, with less than two m…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2026 - Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes First Win Since 1982
Republican Christine Drazan holds a slight lead over Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon’s governor’s race as the GOP seeks its first gubernatorial victory in the state since 1982. The post Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes Fir…
Breitbart News · September 16, 2026 
Deep-blue Oregon is on track to elect REPUBLICAN governor, claims shock new poll that puts GOP candidate well ahead of Democrat incumbentIncumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is locked in a head to head with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan.
Dailymail.com · July 10, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Oregon Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Tina Kotek (D), with roughly a 61% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+1.3.
What do the polls say in the Oregon Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from DHM Research (2026-10-01), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+1.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Oregon Governor race?
Tina Kotek is the Democratic candidate; Christine Drazan is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Oregon Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Oregon Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Tina Kotek's (D) lead has widened to 61%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Oregon Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.