Actual result
R+18.4
Final polls said
R+35.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+34.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+34.6 | 16.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | R+35.0 | 16.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2006-10-21 | 502 | R+35.0 | 17 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2006-09-16 | 651 | R+39.0 | 21 |